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Ajax v Liverpool
Ajax are once again dominating their league and if they carry on their current run of form are certain to lift the title for the fourth time in a row. In their past three games they have scored 15 goals and have a goal difference of +20 in their five home league matches this year.
Liverpool are coming off the back of a surprise loss at Nottingham Forest, the Reds have been one of the Premier League leaders for the past five/six years but are going through something of a rough patch as they are currently 8th after 11 games and are still searching for their first away win in the Premier League.
We’d have liked to back Ajax in this fixture if they hadn’t been so poor in their other games. they lost to Napoli 10-3 over the two games and came up short at Anfield, losing 2-1. Both teams scoring seems like a shoe in for this game with Liverpool scoring in all games this season bar their loss at the weekend and a 0-0 stalemate with Everton.
The only game that the two sides have played in the Champions League this season which has finished with unders was Liverpool’s 2-0 home win over Rangers but aside from this all game have had both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. Five of the seven games both teams have played finished with over 3.5 and because of that we think it’s the best bet.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 3.5 GOALS
Spurs v Sporting
Spurs top their group going into the penultimate game week with potentially their most difficult game still to come, away at Marseille. The previous tie between these two sides ended 2-0 to Sporting so the Tottenham players will go out there seeking revenge after a disappointing result in the reverse fixture.
Sporting Lisbon have won five of their last six games league games but are winless in their past two Champions League (UCL) fixtures which were two losses against Marseille (4-1, 0-2). Group D is still a close fought affair with leaders, Tottenham, only three points away from Frankfurt in last which means all teams can still qualify for the knockout stages.
Sporting have traditionally been a poor team in their away UCL matches, they’ve only managed seven wins in their last 26 away matches at the pinnacle of European football (since 2007). Lots of their wins came against the lesser sides in the competition like Basel, Dynamo Kiev, Besiktas, Olympiakos and there ‘best’ win was their recent victory over Frankfurt.
Antonio Conte has come under pressure recently with Tottenham’s style of play, it seems unsustainable to concede the number of shots they currently do. Spurs rank 10th in the Shots on Target against (concede 4.17 SoT/90) whilst Sporting average 5.8 SoT/90 and are third in Goals/SoT, because of this we think that BTTS (Yes) is the best bet.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Napoli v Rangers
Napoli are storming their way through the group stages and have already guaranteed qualification to knockout rounds. The Naples based team have won all four of their games so far and are on a current unbeaten streak of 19 games in all competitive competitions, their last loss was against Empoli (3-2 on 24th April 2022).
The ‘Gers have really struggled trying to make the step up to the Champions League, they’ve only managed one goal in their four games so far and have a goal difference of -15. Things were looking up for Rangers after they got to their first European final since their UEFA Cup (now the Europa League) appearance against Zenit but it may be a while before they can compete at this level.
It’s somewhat likely that we see some starters drop out of the line-up with qualification already guaranteed but they could start a fairly strong team to guarantee the top spot in the groups. Rangers are missing seven players at the moment with the key names being Ianis Hagi (ATT/MID) and Conor Goldson (DEF). Napoli only have three players out with Andre-Franck Zambo Anguissa (MID) being the biggest name.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in three of Napoli’s five home league matches this year and all of their Champions League games have seen the same result, with three of the four ending with over 3.5 goals. Rangers might be able to nab a goal against the run of play but we can only assume that Napoli will carry on the dominance they’ve shown in their previous games.
NAPOLI AND OVER 3.5 GOALS
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