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West Ham incurred a narrow loss in their latest Europa League fixture against Sevilla, with Munir El Haddadi the difference maker, scoring the only goal of the game in the 60th minute.
The Hammers were vastly outplayed by the Spanish giants, with every key metric going in Sevilla’s favour. David Moyes will need a quick turnaround from his players if they want to get a result against this in-form Villa side.
The Villains have now scored nine goals in their last three games and got clean sheets in all three.
The signing of Phillipe Coutinho has been the key to their success, picking up four goals and three assists in his eight appearances, which is an outstanding contribution so far. The Brazilian has played 598 minutes in the Premier League to date, which means that he gets a goal or assist every 85 minutes.
Despite losing their last two games by a 1-0 scoreline, West Ham are still favourites to win here, which did come as a bit of a surprise considering the football that Aston Villa have played recently.
Villa To Win
When playing at home, West Ham have scored as many as they have conceded in the first half (9) but seem to outscore their opponents in the second half with 16 goals coming so far compared to ten conceded.
The half time draw could be quite profitable considering that six out of their 14 home matches have been level at that stage, while Villa have only trailed at half time in two of their past 13 home or away.
There have been over 4.5 Goals in 36% of West Ham’s home games, as four of their games have resulted in 3-2 scoreline to either team (two for West Ham, two for their opposition), while in the reverse fixture the score was 4-1 to West Ham.
It is possible to get some value out of this market when you to take into account how it’s being priced (currently over 7) but there have only been +4.5 goals in 15% of all of Villa’s games.
Coutinho To Score Anytime
We think that Villa’s high spirits and good run of form will be too much for West Ham, who are probably on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of spirits and form, while one or two of the host’s players are looking a little leggy following the additional burden of European matches.
Coutinho could well be the difference maker here and will seek to put the game in their favour in any way possible.
PREDICTIONS:
ASTON VILLA TO WIN
COUTINHO TO SCORE ANYTIME
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