Chelsea v Wolves
After a thoroughly disappointing defeat to Everton at the weekend, Chelsea will be keen to get back on track with a win when they play Wolves at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have been very good when playing on the road this year, they have gained 37 points from their 18 away matches, with only Man City picking up more.
Wolves have seen a huge dip in form since overcoming Tottenham and Leicester, they have W3-L7 in their last ten Premier League fixtures and Bruno Lage will want to cap off his debut season in the league on a high note.
The Blues home form has been a bit of mystery this season, if it weren’t for their away record they would be a long way out of the Champions League spots. They have lost two out of their last three games at the Bridge and when they last played each other the game resulted in a 0-0 draw. We think double chance Wolves-Draw has some serious value here but is less likely to come off than our other bet.
Seven of the eleven games that Wolves have played against top-eight opponents have resulted in them losing by a one-goal margin (they also won two by a one-goal margin) and 11 of their 15 losses this season have had the same outcome, and we can’t see much splitting them again here.
CHELSEA TO WIN BY ONE GOAL MARGIN
Brighton v Man United
Brighton have managed 11 points from their last six matches, this is a great turnaround in form considering they didn’t manage a single point in their six matches before these.
The Red Devils have been a sporadic team this year, they have only managed to win three games in a row on two occasions and haven’t been able to get past that three-win mark all season. This has been a big part of their downfall this season, their inability to string a good set of results together so they can carry on building their confidence and take that into the next game. This is something all the teams around them have managed to do.
This year, Brighton have been a notoriously hard team to take points off. They are the “Kings of the Draw” having currently drawn 14 of their 35 games this season. When Brighton have played teams ranked 3rd-8th they have only lost three of the ten matches, a run which has included recent wins over North London duo Arsenal and Spurs. Manchester United have lost their last four away matches and we think Brighton will give them a good run for their money here.
DOUBLE CHANCE: BRIGHTON-DRAW
Brentford v Southampton
Since their defeat to Newcastle in late February, Brentford have gone W5-D1-L2. This run of form has kept them safe from the drop in their debut season and fans will ultimately be incredibly happy with how this campaign has played out as a whole.
The Saints have only won one fixture out of their last nine matches, which was against Arsenal when they were going through their tricky period. Defeats to Watford, Burnley and a 6-0 annihilation by Chelsea has summed up their recent form.
It’s extremely tight around this middle section of the table as there are six teams within four points of Southampton, starting at 9th and going down to 14th (Southampton are 15th with 40 pts and Brighton are 9th with 44). One of the teams in this group is Brentford so we should be able to get a good feel for how this game will go down.
The Saints have played ten games against this cluster of teams and eight of these ten have finished with a winning bet of both teams to score. If we do the same with Brentford we can see that six out of their eleven games have had the same outcome, and at this point of the season with not much on the line, we can’t see either side holding back.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Burnley v Aston Villa
Since the sacking of Sean Dyche, Burnley have gained ten points from four games (W3-D1) which is a massive turnaround and has pulled them, albeit temporarily, outside of the relegation zone. They have won their last three Premier League matches in a row, something that the Clarets haven’t done since the 16/17 season when they beat five teams on the bounce.
After gone winless in five games, Steven Gerrard's men have got back to winning ways after beating Norwich by a 2-0 margin. That result should be guaranteed though against the bottom of the league, and against a rejuvenated Burnley side it may not be as straight forward.
Burnley have been on a long run of under 2.5 goals bets coming off in their games, with only four of their last 17 games going over that margin and 71% of their home games have resulted in a winning unders bets. Villa have had 53% of their away games result in over 2.5 goals but we think that Burnley are going to set out in their classic defensive format and do their best to pick up any points they can at this late stage.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
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