It’s been a poor start to the campaign for both these sides, with just one win in 18 games between them.
Norwich looked incredibly out of their depth at Stamford Bridge last weekend in their 7-0 humiliation at the hands of Chelsea, and while Leeds earned themselves a last gasp draw with in-form Wolves, they went back to losing ways in midweek when away at Arsenal.
Output has been the main issue for both outfits. Leeds had netted 14 times after nine games last year, though that total drops to just eight so far this season, while Norwich have been nothing short of abysmal in front of goal having struck just twice all campaign, putting them in danger of breaking the current record of fewest goals in a league season, currently sitting at 20.
With both sides in the bottom three with regard to output this season, it’s fair to say a low scoring game is on the cards.
You could point at Norwich’s equally poor defensive record where they’ve conceded 23 times already this season, though 65% of those goals have come from their three outings against the ‘big three’ sides this season in Chelsea, Liverpool, and Man City, and with Leeds’ record in front of goal this year we wouldn’t expect the Canaries to be put to the sword again, especially on home soil.
Leeds To Win And Under 3.5 Goals
Leeds actually also have a fantastic record against promoted sides since the returned to the Premier League, winning all four such games last season against fellow promoted clubs last year, scoring 14 goals across those four outings, and winning their only one this year against Watford by a humbler 1-0 scoreline.
The absence of Patrick Bamford from the side limits output even more for the visitors, who have already failed to score in each of their last three away games across all competitions, though the return of Kalvin Phillips certainly brings more stability to the side, while they still have creative output in the forward areas to exploit their hosts, even without Bamford.
While Leeds were the entertainers of last season, six of their last seven matches across all competitions have seen under 2.5 goals land, with each of their last 10 seeing a maximum of three strikes in total.
Norwich have seen that under 3.5 goals market land in four of their last five outings too, and we’d be surprised if this was a goal fest between two sides low on confidence.
The head-to-heads between these two managers sits at one apiece, though they’ve never faced off at Premier League level and Marcelo Bielsa looks to be the man better equipped to deal at this level, so the away win and under 3.5 goals markets pose value when coupled together.
LEEDS TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS