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The Toffees looked like they were on course for a solid home win against Watford last weekend, being 2-1 up with just 12 minutes to play, though an inspired last final period from the visitors saw them taking a hefty 5-2 victory home from Goodison, and now Rafa Benitez’s men will need to bounce back.
Wolves were also on the wrong end of some late drama, as a 95th minute Rodrygo penalty nabbed a point for Leeds at Elland Road and stopped Bruno Lage’s charges from taking a fourth successive league win.
Everton managed the double over Wolves last year for the first time since the 1975/76 season, and although the squads are largely the same, with two new managers in the dugout this year we’d expect the balance to be shifted back to neutral.
This game really is anybody’s guess with just one point separating the two, though with this being played in the Midlands and with the missing players for the visitors, there’s good reason that Wolves are favourites.
The visitors are the side with less issues in personnel, with the likes of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Yerry Mina, Andre Gomez and Abdoulaye Doucoure all out for the hosts, and that has proven to be a real hinderance in recent seasons.
Indeed, those are statistically four of the top six most influential players in this Everton side since the beginning of last season in terms of points per game difference when they are and aren’t starting, with the Toffees seeing a massive 68% and 70% increase in points per game when Mina and Doucoure start, respectively.
Wolves To Win
That certainly gives Wolves the edge with no major injury concerns for Lage to deal with, aside from Pedro Neto, as Fernando Marcal could make a return here.
Recent form would also suggest that momentum is firmly on the side of the hosts, taking 10 points from their last 12 available after a slow start to the campaign, while Everton have taken just four from the last 15 on offer, with their only victory in that time coming against rock bottom Norwich.
Wolves were almost a shoe in for an unders bet last season, averaging 2.32 goals per game in total, and that’s shortened even further to just two per game this season, the lowest in the league.
Two of their last three have seen over 2.5 goals land though and while it’s likely that this will be another low scoring affair, Everton have proven that they can come unstuck at times, not least last weekend, and without the defensive stability that Mina brings to this side we’re unsure on the goals market and will stick with the home win on the 1x2.
WOLVES TO WIN
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