Lazio are guaranteed fourth place at the very least and can rise as high as second in the final standings should they win here and Atalanta’s tussle with Inter ends in a stalemate.
Meanwhile, Napoli will finish a disappointing seventh no matter what and are only playing for pride, but at first glance recent performances suggest they’ll struggle to end the campaign with a win.
Napoli went just W4-D2-L3 throughout July and although each defeat came on their travels, they’re still only W8-D4-L4 at the Stadium San Paulo in all competitions since Gennaro Guttuso replaced Carlo Ancelotti.
However, that doesn’t tell the entire story as three of those defeats came in their first four home games under current management and they’re currently on a run of five wins from nine unbeaten matches there over 90 minutes.
That includes stalemates with Barcelona, Inter, Juventus and Milan, as well as a win over Roma, so the hosts are definitely worth paying attention to here.
Napoli +0.25 Asian Handicap
Lazio might have won three on the trot, but these were versus Cagliari, Verona and Brescia, while prior to that Simone Inzaghi’s men had lost four of five winless outings.
In fact, against the top eight in the table alone, they’ve lost all four matches since the restart in June. Their last 10 road trips in all competitions have seen them go W4-D2-L4 as the victories all came against teams ninth or lower in the table, while it also includes Napoli’s third home win in a row over Lazio as they defeated them at this stadium in the Coppa Italia back in January.
You have to go back to before Christmas to find Lazio’s last away win against real quality, so the hosts appear worth siding with on the Asian handicap at the prices.
There’s further reason to get behind them as Lazio are missing a few regulars for this one. Stefan Radu will be absent at the heart of defence, while in midfield Lucas Leiva and Senad Lulic are both unavailable.
Knee problems have limited Lucas Leiva’s recent involvement and Lazio have won just 13% of the 30 matches he’s failed to start since the start of last season, compared to a 62% win rate over the 45 where he took to the field from the off.
In fact, the last two he did start were recent defeats to Milan and Lecce, though he came off at half time in both as Lazio lost the second half in those two games.
Ciro Immobile To Score Anytime
Although we fancy Napoli to at least hold their own in this encounter, they’ve still kept just three clean sheets in 16 appearances across all competitions and just two in 11 at home.
The final day often brings about high-scoring affairs and one man who will be desperate to add to his tally is Ciro Immobile, who needs just one more to equal the Capocannoniere record of 35 set by Gonzalo Higuain for Napoli in 2015/16.
The Italian is ending the campaign with a flourish with six goals in Lazio’s past four matches, scoring at least once in each, while he’s found the net in all three league encounters with Napoli since the start of last season.