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This is the first of the hardest double header in the Premier League for Newcastle as they travel to the Etihad before hosting league leaders Liverpool just a few days later.
The head-to-heads in this fixture don’t make for pretty reading for Newcastle with City winning all 11 home meetings between the two since the Premiership was rebranded to the Premier League in summer 2007, with the hosts scoring three or more in seven of the last eight such matches and averaging exactly four goals per game over that time.
It’s not been the start to the season that Pep Guardiola would have wanted as they currently sit down in eighth having won less than half of their games so far.
Their 19 goals netted so far is the lowest in the top half of the table, though there have been some major improvements at the back as they currently hold the best defensive record in the league so while expansive, attacking football has been at the heart of how City have operated over the past few years under Guardiola, a more resolute side has taken shape this season.
Man City To Win And Under 3.5 Goals
Newcastle have lacked consistency this year, going W5-D3-L5 from their 13 games so far while they also fell to defeat to Championship side Brentford this week in the League Cup.
Their away form of W2-D2-L2 shouldn’t be taken lightly though, especially since they earned draws against both Spurs and Wolves while they beat West Ham on the opening day 2-0.
They’ve conceded just four goals in five games against sides currently placed 13th and above on the road and against a City side that aren’t firing on all cylinders in front of goal in the League, they could keep this one tight too.
The bad news for the visitors is the return of Sergio Aguero to the side though. The Argentine has been one of the deadliest strikers in Europe over the past decade and when he’s on song, there’s very little that a defender can do to stop him.
However, Man City’s goals per game in the league actually increases with Aguero out of the side from 2.30 in 127 games he’s started to 2.38 in 76 he hasn’t since 2015/16, so it seems he has less of an impact than assumed on his side’s output.
While the head-to-head history would suggest City will put their visitors to the sword, recent form would imply otherwise.
Guardiola’s side have only won one of their 13 matches this season by more than two clear goals with them only covering the +2 handicap on three occasions.
While we’d expect their defence to hold strong, the win to nil looks far too short and we’ll instead opt for the low scoring home win for our bet here.