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Group A1 is delicately poised with Poland leading the way on seven points and third-placed Netherlands just two further back.
Jerzy Brzeczek’s side have clinically taken advantage with a pair of wins over weakest side Bosnia, and with plenty of stalemates across the group, a win here would see Poland confirm first place, while a draw would still leave them in a fantastic position to top the final standings.
Both sides arrive at this clash in good form and couldn’t be separated last month when playing out a goalless draw. That was actually the second stalemate in three meetings, having also met each other in the inaugural Nations League, so expect tight margins to settle this game.
Italy And Poland To Draw
Poland are now W12-D2-L2 since 2019 as they registered 10 clean sheets. However, it’s worth noting that Bosnia and the Ukraine are the strongest sides they’ve taken maximum points from, even if those were in their last two appearances.
Still, although they avoided any heavy hitters in Euro qualifiers, they remain a respectable W2-D3-L3 across all their Nations League matches as defeats to Portugal, Italy and the Netherlands each came by one-goal margins.
Italy can boast an even better record under Roberto Mancini and they’re now unbeaten in 20 matches going back just over two years.
They won 15 of these, though like Poland enjoyed a weak qualifying group for the Euros, as they were able to string together an 11-game winning run where the strongest opponents they faced were Bosnia.
More recently, they’ve drawn three of six outings since September, though two of these were 6-0 and 4-0 home wins over Moldova and Estonia respectively.
Under 2.5 Goals
The Azzurri have drawn three of four Nations League matches as each of them saw fewer than three goals, in much the same manner as their first campaign.
All eight of their appearances in this competition have featured a maximum of two goals as over half finished in stalemates, with six of these games level at the break as four went Draw/Draw half-time/full-time.
Italy are masters at keeping matches with decent or quality opponents tight. Looking at those Nations League encounters, as well as their double header with Bosnia in Euro qualifiers, friendlies with the Netherlands, France, England and Argentina, plus their World Cup play-offs with Sweden, the Italians have seen fewer than three goals in 13 of 16 matches over the past three years.