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ENGLAND V ICELAND
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Wales enjoyed a great end to their European qualifying campaign, finishing just three points shy of leaders Croatia and crucially ahead of Slovakia and Hungary. They’ve now won four of six unbeaten games over the past 12 months when including a friendly with Belarus, though they’re very much dependent on a solid rearguard.
A mammoth 23 of their last 29 games dating back to October 2016 have seen fewer than three goals (79%). Even of the six that didn’t, three finished 2-1 to one side or the other, while one of the others saw them simply outclassed 4-1 by Spain.
Victories over China (6-0) and the Republic of Ireland (4-1) remain the biggest highlights of Ryan Giggs’ tenure so far, though in the 15 fixtures since the latter result, Wales have only scored more than once on three occasions.
The Dragons have typically been at their best when the quartet of Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey, Joe Allen and Ashley Williams have all been available. However, Williams is 36-years-old and has pulled out of the squad, as has Aaron Ramsey, the promising but seemingly injury-prone David Brooks and Leeds forward Tyler Roberts.
Allen will be in line for his first appearance since rupturing his Achilles tendon in June, while it remains to be seen what a lack of game time at Madrid will mean for Bale’s match fitness.
Ryan Giggs will at least be able to call upon Hal Robson-Kanu after the forward reversed his decision to retire from international football. The 31-year-old is hardly prolific with just five goals from 44 caps, but it still leaves him as the second-top scorer in the squad beyond Bale.
Finland are in a similar boat however as after talisman Teemu Pukki, only Fredrik Jensen (four), Pyry Soiri (five) and Joel Pohjanpalo (seven) have more than one international strike.
Both Teams To Score (No)
Finland’s last five matches may all have seen a minimum of three goals, though we wouldn’t expect that run to continue. Only a 4-1 defeat to Bosnia-Herzegovina saw more than three, while their previous 13 official FIFA matches each saw Under 2.5 Goals land.
This doesn’t look set to be a firecracker and should one side or the other take the lead, expect them to batten down the hatches rather than go for a killer second goal.
Indeed, 17 of Wales’ last 25 matches since September 2017 have seen at least one team or the other fail to score, including seven of the past 11, while that’s also been the case in 17 of Finland’s last 20 official matches.
Both Teams To Score (No) At 4/5
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ENGLAND V ICELAND
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