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It wasn’t the most convincing of victories over Malmo in midweek for Chelsea, though despite the game finishing just 1-0, they dominated from start to finish and it’s a job done.
That victory now means the blues have won seven on the bounce when including penalties, with that league cup goal against Southampton the only one they’ve conceded in that run, so Burnley have a real task on their hands.
The good news for the Clarets is that they come into this off the back of their first league win in 13 matches going back to May, ending a run of four draws and eight defeats, so they should at the very least have a bit of confidence back.
That said, there’s little to get behind in Burnley’s case against their hosts, especially when considering their recent record against the bigger sides.
Indeed, they lost 10 of their 12 matches against top-six finishers last term, with their only victory coming over Liverpool in the midst of their worst spell of form under Jurgen Klopp, and with Chelsea is quite contrasting form to that Liverpool side that leaves us unsure of their chances here.
Chelsea -1 Handicap
Thomas Tuchel’s men have won all four matches so far this season against sides in the bottom-six at the time of playing, beating all of Arsenal, Norwich, and Newcastle to nil, and only conceding to a penalty against Southampton.
Their only defeat against such sides under the German’s reign was when they came unstuck in a 5-2 hammering at the hands of West Brom, though they’ve proven since that that was a complete anomaly and they’re one of the most consistent defensive sides in the league.
The London side have won each of the last four meetings, and in the six matches since Antonio Conte left the club in 2018, they’ve put 18 goals on their opponents, with all of them coming from 15 different players, leaving the goalscorer market here absolutely anyone’s guess.
Chelsea took the three points in five of those six games, with all coming by more than a single strike so the handicap market looks to be where the value is held here.
Sean Dyche’s side have lost 15 away games against top-six finishers since the beginning of the 2017/18 season, with 12 of those defeats coming by two or more goals, failing to even score in six of the most recent eight of those defeats.
Chelsea struggled for output against Malmo in midweek despite a host of chances, though they’ve proven in recent games that they can cope without a recognised number nine, and with all four of their wins against bottom-six sides this season coming by more than a goal, the -1 handicap looks the way to go here.
PREDICTION:
CHELSEA -1 HANDICAP
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