A phenomenal second half display from Brighton last weekend earned them a point at Anfield, and that show of character is exactly what Graham Potter will have wanted from his impressive side.
Despite being winless from their last six across all competitions, confidence is likely quite high in the Seagulls camp at the moment, with that result at the weekend keeping them competitive in eighth place.
They’ve drawn five of those six outings, but anything other than maximum points here will be deemed a poor result.
10 games into the campaign and Newcastle are still searching for their first victory, though morale remains high owing to the anticipation of the January transfer window and the prospect of a new manager.
Unai Emery is the firm favourite and could be in charge by the time the weekend comes around, though the Spaniard has only won one of his last four debuts as a manger, and it’s hard to see him having too much of an impact this weekend if he is appointed.
Having won just one of their 17 home league games for the entirety of 2020, they’ve gone W6-D6-L4 at home so far in 2021, which has included wins over Leicester and Man City, with their most convincing win coming 3-0 over the Magpies themselves.
Brighton To Win And Under 3.5 Goals
Newcastle have an identical D2-L3 home and away record this year, though with their only points coming against sides currently occupying bottom-eight positions in the table it’s hard to see them claiming something here.
With that said, they haven’t actually been abysmal in front of goal this season and it’s their defence that have proven to be their hinderance.
They’re 13th in the table for goals scored, though only Norwich have conceded more than their 23 so far and the hosts will want to put some away against them.
Brighton are yet to score more than twice in a single game this season though and have only done so once in their last 19 league games since this fixture last season.
Their output is limited even more by the absences of Steven Alzate and Danny Welbeck this year, with the Seagulls seeing a 59% increase in output when the former starts under Graham Potter’s reign.
While we’d expect the hosts to come up trumps, being the side with a manager, the lack of output has to be concerning under Potter and although their visitors are leaky, they’re more than capable of restricting their hosts to just a couple.
That leaves the home win coupled with an unders bet posing the best value for us, with the 3.5 line coving the visitors getting on the scoresheet.
BRIGHTON TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS