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The Course
The course needs absolutely no introduction and is up there with the most iconic sporting venues in history, and the return to an April showing around here means the course trends and stats are more prevalent than in DJ’s record-breaking win.
As ever, approach play and a good touch around the greens will be key in picking a winner here, and with rumours from numerous sources that the course is playing longer and firmer than ever, that deft touch is going to be even more necessary, as the frequent shouts of ‘mudball’ from November are likely to be few and far between this time around.
Without further ado, we’ve picked out our five key trends for picking a winner at Augusta.
Course Trends To Consider
Top-35 – At Augusta the cream usually rises to the top. Zach Johnson in 2007 and Angel Cabrera in 2009 bucked the trend as the only winners since 1985 to be ranked outside the top-35.
That said, the Argentinean had already proven his quality with a US Open, whilst Zach went on to win an Open at St. Andrews.
This year we’ll break that bracket slightly to cater for the possibility of another Jordan Spieth win, owing to his course pedigree and win in Texas just last week.
Negative for: Spieth
Played in at least two Masters – In 2015, Spieth became the second winner after Tiger to not to have made at least two appearances since Nick Faldo in 1989.
Willett then repeated this feat a year later, suggesting that we shouldn’t completely discount those that aren’t yet household names, but we still think course experience counts for a lot around here.
Negative for: Morikawa, Hovland, Im, Scheffler, Wolff, Niemann, Perez, Ancer, Kokrak, Bezhuidenhout
Younger than 40 – Although experience is an asset, age does seem to be a bit of a barrier. Tiger Woods was the first player to win in their 40’s since Mark O’Meara in 1998.
Negative for: Casey, Westwood, Scott
A top-five finish at Augusta – In the Bentgrass era (since 1981), 25 of 40 winners had previously had a top-five finish at Augusta (63%), including six of the last eight.
Negative for: Morikawa, DeChambeau, Hatton, Cantlay, Hovland, Berger, Fitzpatrick, Horschel, English, Scheffler, Wolff, Fleetwood, Niemann, Palmer, Perez, Ancer, Kokrak, Na, Bezuidenhout
Made the cut the previous year – Fond recent memories are key: Tiger and Reed remain the only players since 1997 to win the year after a missed cut (and Tiger was still an amateur in 1996!) Furthermore, since 1981 only 16 players have made the top-three having not made the cut the previous year.
Negative for: Hatton, Wolff, Kokrak
Stats To Consider
Average rank of the last 10 winners:
Driving Distance: 20.1
Driving Accuracy: 26.2
Greens in Regulation: 6.2
Scrambling: 10.9
Putting Average: 11.5
This has long been considered a second shot course, and the stats go a long way to backing up that theory. Greens in Regulation and Scrambling, as a rule of thumb, are the stats to focus on here.
Bombers have also gone well here in recent years, with the four par fives on offer very much an opportunity to knock shots off your score.
The winners of the past 15 years have gone, on average, 8.6 under par on the longer holes, compared to just -1.8 on the par 4s and -0.3 on the par 3s. It’s therefore no surprise that three of the last four winners have ranked in the top-6 for Driving Distance.
However, while that does give the likes of Bryson DeChambeau a bit of an advantage, it’s really the best iron players in the game that are going to excel here, especially if the greens are as firm as Adam Scott has eluded to this year.
Patrick Reed’s 2018 victory was an anomaly, having ranked 21st for GIR, though he led the field in putting accuracy that week which is always going to give you a good chance of taking home the gold.
Either side of that victory, eight of the last nine winners have ranked in the top-six for GIR, with DJ and Tiger leading the field in that regard over the past two renewals.
With how hard the course threatens to play this week, scrambling could be just as important as ever. 10 of the last 13 winners have ranked in the top 10 for scrambling, so we’ll certainly be keeping an eye on the best short game players on tour.
Form To Consider
Form is absolutely crucial coming into this event, and that has been truer than ever in recent years. Although nobody has won this event off the back of a victory for 15 years now (over to you Jordan Spieth), five of the last seven winners had a victory already that season.
In truth, DJ had far more opportunities to win having had till November, though it’s difficult to ignore form of 2-1-2-3-6-2 heading into the week.
Patrick Reed and Tiger Woods are the two exceptions to that rule, though Reed had come second at the Valspar, seventh at the Arnold Palmer (and ninth at the World Match Play) before coming to Georgia, while Woods had a top-10 in Mexico before a fifth at the World Match Play). Therefore, eight of the last nine champions have recorded at least one top-10 finish in any of their three stroke-play starts before Augusta, while no winner since 2009 has missed a cut in their previous three starts.
The Field
We’ve looked at the world’s top 35 in depth and broken down whether they meet the 10 requirements that have stood the test of time at Augusta:
- Five course trends
- Top-35 on tour this season for GIR or Scrambling
- Two form trends
We have come to the conclusion that the most important criteria was to fit at least four of the five course trends – thus not ruling out those who’ve played Augusta only a handful of times and had less chance to register a top-five finish. Additionally, the ideal fit would have at least one of the key stats ticked and two of the form. Required:
- At least 4 out of 5 course trends
- At least 1 of 2 stats
- At least 1 of 2 form trends
World Rank | Player | Course Trends | Stat Trends | Form Trends | Total Score |
1 | Dustin Johnson | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
2 | Justin Thomas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
3 | Jon Rahm | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
4 | Collin Morikawa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
5 | Bryson DeChambeau | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
6 | Xander Schauffele | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
7 | Patrick Reed | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
8 | Tyrrell Hatton | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
9 | Webb Simpson | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
10 | Patrick Cantlay | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
11 | Brooks Koepka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
12 | Rory McIlroy | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
13 | Tony Finau | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
14 | Viktor Hovland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
15 | Daniel Berger | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
16 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
17 | Billy Horschel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
18 | Paul Casey | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
19 | Sungjae Im | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
20 | Lee Westwood | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
21 | Harris English | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
22 | Scottie Scheffler | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
23 | Matt Wolff | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
24 | Tommy Fleetwood | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
25 | Hideki Matsuyama | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
26 | Joaquin Niemann | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
27 | Ryan Palmer | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
28 | Louis Oosthuizen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
29 | Victor Perez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
30 | Cameron Smith | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
31 | Abraham Ancer | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
32 | Adam Scott | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
33 | Jason Kokrak | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
34 | Kevin Na | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
35 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
38 | Jordan Spieth | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
12 players from that bracket of 36 fit the mould for this year, but does that mean that we disregard anyone who doesn’t? Absolutely not. This is much more of a guide rather than a ‘be all end all’, and there are certainly some strong contenders from those outside this.
US Masters 2020 Betting Tips
Our first pick, however, does come from inside that bracket, and is our choice from the five runaway leaders at the top of the market.
Dustin Johnson leads the betting following on from his victory last year, though only Jack Nicklaus (1965/66), Nick Faldo (1989/90) and Tiger Woods (2001/02) have ever successfully defended a Masters title, and when you compare his form this year to that of five months ago, he’s certainly not as menacing as he was so at his price we’re happy to look elsewhere.
Bryson DeChambeau famously claimed he was playing this course to a par of 67, though he ought to have shown a tad more respect having failed to break into the top-20 in any of his four visits so far, and with the course playing longer and greens firmer, questions will be asked of his approach play here.
John Rahm
Jon Rahm holds all the credentials to be a Masters champion. He’s impressed on his last three visits going 4-9-7, and he’s certainly one of the most dangerous and consistent players in the sport at the moment.
The issue here is two-fold. Firstly, Rahmbo’s wife has just given birth to a baby boy, and only time will tell if that has a positive or negative impact on his game, though it certainly will have disrupted his usual preparation for the tournament and that leaves a question mark over his price.
Secondly, while his change of clubs in the offseason has had its benefits, he’s struggled to close out on any of his top performances so far this campaign, and until he manages to win with his new clubs, he doesn’t warrant such a short price.
Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth currently sits at 38th in the world rankings and looks to be the first players from outside the top-35 to win here since Angel Cabrera in 2009, as well as being the first in 15 years to win off the back of a victory the week prior.
He’s certainly hitting form a the right time though, and certainly has the course pedigree to go well here, though his Greens in Regulation and Scrambling stats for the season leave more the be desired, in which regard he ranks 178th and 87th on tour this season, respectively. He certainly wouldn’t be a surprise victor, though considering his stats, Justin Thomas looks the man ready for a jacket.
Justin Thomas
There are very few players who look as comfortable from tee to green around Augusta than JT, who has improved year on year and finished in fourth back in November.
As expected, he found the greens with ease and can thank his putting for his position, and if it weren’t for DJ just being filthily strong, he could have had himself a win. He’s hit 73.95% of his greens here over the last four years, ranking in the top six for that metric on each occasion.
The only question surrounding his price is his quality off the tee, which hasn’t always been pinpoint, though in his recent victory at the Players he led the field from tee to green, gaining 89% of his 14.5 strokes before reaching the green.
He looks a Masters winner in the making, and despite missing two cuts recently, he’s managed top-15 finishes in every other event he’s played since August and looks the pick of the bunch from those top five.
The second selection of the week goes by way of another from that 12-man, trend-fitting bracket. He’d have collected maximum points if he’s played another round here and had scrambled better this year.
Though with a 2nd placed finish on debut (where he ranked 5th for scrambling and was the best putter in the field), and ranking 6th and 9th for scrambling in his last two starts, Sungjae Im certainly gets our vote.
Sungjae Im
Being the only player to hit all of Dave Tindall’s trends to find a winner, the South Korean comes into this off the back of a rest week having played in five consecutive tournaments.
He also comes into this in better form than he did in November, where he entered with form of 45-41-50, which now translates to 21-17-8, while even in those former two he was in contention heading to the weekend.
His short game is as strong as it’s ever been, and if his iron play is up to the billing, there’s every chance the 23-year-old could compete yet again.
Cameron Smith
Another from the bracket, and the man who shared second place with Sungjae last year is Cameron Smith.
The Aussie became the first man to shoot four rounds in the sixties in November, and although the conditions were certainly favourable to low scores, it was his scrambling that allowed for that record to be broken in November, as he ranked third in that regard.
That was no one off as Smith’s short game is one of the best in the world at the moment, not ranking outside the top-20 for scrambling in any of his events since the Masters.
The firmer greens may suit his game more too, as he’s not the most dialled in with his irons, and while he’s used to scrapping for pars, others may not be and that’s where he has the advantage over the field, so looks another one at a long enough price to get behind.
Webb Simpson
Our final pick for the week goes the way of Webb Simpson. The American looks to be gearing up for something special and he certainly has the credentials to pull off a win here.
It’s surprising to see him go off at a longer price than he did back in November, considering he went well and finished in a tie for 10th.
He’s not one of the biggest hitters in the game by any stretch of the imagination, though he’s a clever golfer and seems to have figured out how he can best score around this course.
That 10th placed finish followed on from a top-5 in 2019, and he also saw a top-20 in 2018 so he’s no stranger to Augusta.
He’s one of very few players to fit the metric for both GIR and Scrambling, in which he ranks an impressive 17th and 2nd for the season, respectively and his form hasn’t exactly taken a dive either.
He’s managed two top-six finishes in his last four starts, which is more than can be said for his build up in all of 2020, 2019 and 2018.
The only thing stopping him from fitting every trend is his missed cut at the Players, but we’re happy to put that down to a bad day at the office and his surrounding form suggests he’s got enough to reward backers here.
Cameron Smith E/W Win At 28/1 (1/5 odds, 7 places)
Sungjae Im E/W Win At 33/1 (1/5 odds, 7 places)
Webb Simpson E/W Win At 33/1 (1/5 odds, 7 places)
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