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This is an incredibly weak field for Pebble Beach, as Dustin Johnson’s withdrawal means not a single player from the World’s Top 10 will be competing this weekend, likely due to the Genesis Invitational at Riviera next week, and we can only assume that, coupled with the long flight from Saudi Arabia, is why Johnson has decided to relieve his jetlag for another week rather than grace Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill with his services.
The courses play a similar length, just either side of the 7,000-yard mark and has therefore tended not to reward the biggest drivers on the tour, but those with a really tidy approach game, and those who can hold their nerve when on the green.
A lack of amateurs here due to Covid-19 restrictions will take away from the entertainment, and in truth, this is just an excellent opportunity for some of the fringe players to gain some more Fed-Ex points and build some momentum.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips
Will Zalatoris 18/1
Without any of the games’ top stars featuring here, there’s potential for someone to stake a claim here and Will Zalatoris (18/1) could be that player.
The young American has impressed coming off the Korn Ferry tour with top-10 finishes in half of his events, and he showed glimpses of real promise on his debut at the Phoenix Open at the weekend.
We tipped him up that week, and going 12 under par across rounds two and three had him right up in contention going into the final day, though his putting on those Bermuda greens ended up being his Achilles heel, though back on Poa Annua he could flourish as he did at the Farmers Insurance just a couple weeks ago where he finished seventh.
He might also feel well at home here having grown up just up the coast in San Francisco, and while he currently resides further east, his game looks suited for links and in a weaker field, he could really come into his own and it’s well set up for him to claim his first PGA Tour win. He showed enough in Phoenix for us to get behind his price this time out in a much weaker field.
Phil Mickelson 40/1
Going down a different route of course Pedigree, a blast from the past for us at a long price is Phil Mickelson (40/1).
The five-time Major winner has started poorly this year and is yet to finish inside the top-50 from his opening three events, though his form tends to go out the window when he comes to Pebble Beach.
In his last two PGA events prior to entering the Pebble Beach Pro-am, he’s missed the cut before going on to earn E/W victories here.
Indeed, he’s a five-time winner of this competition and only seems to have improved in recent years having finished in the top three in four of the last five editions.
It’s his putting here that has stood him in such good stead, averaging just 26.76 putts per round across those four recent top-3 finishes and his 43.5% top-5 finish rate here leaves his price extremely long, so we’ll put his recent form behind him and back him to continue his dominance over this course, especially in this field.
Jason Day 16/1
Finally, it’s Jason Day (16/1) that catches our eye. Similarly to Mickelson, he has exceptional course pedigree and there’s every reason to believe he can make that count this weekend.
He’s gone fourth, eleventh, fifth, second, fourth, fourth on his last six starts here and he’ll be chomping at the bit to get that eluding first win.
The Australian has made a poor start to the year after a change of coach and clubs, though the most recent of his two missed cuts so far at the Phoenix Open showed glimmers of hope.
The former world number one struck the ball as well as anyone on the course over the first couple of days, gaining two and a half shots on his approach, an element to his game that looks to have improved this year, while it was his putter that let him down last weekend.
The change from Bermuda to Poa Annua grass should help with his putting at Pebble Beach, and if he can carry his strong iron play over then he really won’t be far away from the top at a course that has often rewarded strong approach and short game.
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 09/02/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS