Arsenal missed out on the FA Cup games at the weekend due to them being knocked out by Nottingham Forrest in the previous round, who went on to beat Leicester 4-1.
The additional few days of rest may be of great service to Arsenal with Mohamad Elneny and Thomas Partey coming back from AFCON. The exit of ex-club captain Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang to Barcelona will be an interesting ongoing story throughout the rest of the season, especially with Arsenal only having two natural strikers in Eddie Nketiah and Alex Lacazette, both of whom contracts expire at the end of the campaign.
Wolves narrowly lost to Norwich at the weekend, in what was one of the many upsets we have seen already this season in the fabled FA Cup.
This game was a bit of an embarrassment for the Wanderers because they virtually put out their strongest team possible whilst Norwich put a slightly weaker side out, that means that Norwich have won their last three competitive games in a row, something they haven’t achieved since being promoted from the Championship.
These sides are yet to play each other this season due to the previous game being postponed for Covid-19 related absentees. Since Wolves got promoted back to the Premier League (PL) in 18/19 season, these teams have played six PL matches against one another.
Wolves have only come up trumps in one of these games, a 2-0 victory at the Emirates. BTTS markets have come off in 5/6 games, but this season the two teams have had an extremely low percentage of BTTS markets coming off (Arsenal 33%, Wolves 29%).
Arsenal To Win 1-0
When Wolves play top half sides in the PL, 8/9 games have finished with a 1-0 scoreline. The only game which didn’t end with this scoreline was a 0-0 draw with Chelsea.
Wolves won three of the nine games which means their record against top-ten opponents is W3-D1-L4. We think Arsenal or Wolves to win by a 1-0 scoreline is good value due to how often it seems to occur.
Under 1.5 Goals
Arsenal come into the game as favourites, despite their relatively poor away showing this year, with just one such win against sides outside the bottom six. This came at a surprise to us because of Arsenal’s lack of a decent striker and the fact that Arsenal gave a very uninspiring performance in a 0-0 draw with Burnley last time out.
Wolves have proven very tricky to beat, and their record this season suggests this is going to be another tight game of fine margins, and the under 1.5 market looks the value one here, with a correct score away win also providing some opportunity.
ARSENAL TO WIN 1-0
UNDER 1.5 GOALS