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Southampton v Chelsea
Southampton may consider themselves unlucky to have gone down 1-0 to Man United at the weekend having spurned a number of good opportunities, though they’ll take confidence in the performance and will feel Chelsea are there for the taking on home soil.
The Blues came through against Leicester despite going down to 10-men, though it’s not the convincing Chelsea that we’ve become accustomed to seeing under Thomas Tuchel, and they’ll be hoping that the return of Kalidou Koulibaly and Mateo Kovacic will give them the edge.
Chelsea did the double over the Saints last year, by a combined 9-1 scoreline, while they’ve scored 19 times across their last five trips to St Mary’s, never failing to score less than three. Only City and Liverpool had more goals on the road than the London side last season too and while they’ve only managed one so far this season, they’ve still scored two or more in eight of their last 12 away games across all competitions.
Chelsea are yet to win by more than a single strike this year, leaving the handicap unappealing, but the outright win at a ground that they’ve had a lot of success at in recent years looks worth backing.
CHELSEA TO WIN
Leeds v Everton
It’s been a very strong start to the season for Jesse Marsch’s Leeds side who currently sit fifth with wins over Wolves and Chelsea, only losing to what is a tricky Brighton side, and they’ll feel confident back on home soil where they’ve won three out of three in all competitions so far.
Everton have been battling, and after narrow defeats to Chelsea and Aston Villa, they’ve picked up points against Forest and Brentford, though they’re still searching for their first win of the campaign. This is a big game for Frank Lampard who has to face Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham in his next three outings where points will be much harder to come by.
Lampard has won each of his last three outings against Leeds, coming with three different clubs and scoring at least three goals in each of those games. We’d be surprised if that record continued here though as while he played expansive football at both Derby and Chelsea, it’s been a more reserved start to the season with Everton. Four of their five matches have seen under 2.5 goals land across all competitions, with the exception coming as two late goals flew in at Villa Park to just creep over that mark.
While Leeds have seen overs land in all but one of theirs, this looks like it’s be a close battle that’ll be decided by fine margins, and we’re inclined to back unders on this occasion.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Crystal Palace v Brentford
Crystal Palace have had a tough start to the season, playing three of the big six in their first four games and walked away with one point against Liverpool but none versus Arsenal and Manchester City. A much needed win against Aston Villa to split these games up means that the Eagles are currently 12th on four points.
The Bee’s only win has come against their toughest opponent, Manchester United, when they dominated the match. Thomas Frank’s side only have one loss to their name which was against Fulham (2-3) and despite losing, they came back from 2-0 down to level the game before a last gasp Aleksander Mitrovic header.
The only time Palace have played a side of similar stature was against Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa, they were tested early on after going 1-0 down after five minutes but two minutes later they were level, a dominant second half display meant the game finished 3-1.
Palace are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, whilst scoring in all but their first game against Arsenal. Brentford kept a clean sheet against Manchester United but have had both teams to score markets come off in three of their four games.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Fulham v Brighton
The Cottagers have been one of the stand-outs of the season, after a dominant campaign in the Championship they have managed to take that quality into the Premier League and were only narrowly handed their first loss of the season last time out against Arsenal.
Brighton are one of five teams to still have an unbeaten record (W3-D1). Their fixtures weren’t easy by any stretch of the imagination, wins against Manchester United, Leeds and West Ham whilst a draw at home against Newcastle was a disappointing result considering how dominant they were in the game.
The unders goal market is the most valuable when betting on Brighton games, it has yielded a lot of success over the past season and always seems to be in with a chance to win, on this game the unders market is stuck in limbo because three of Fulham’s four games have had over 2.5 goals and the exact opposite for Brighton.
Fulham have been far more direct this season than they were in the Championship, with Marco Silva showing a level of maturity and respect for league they’re in and knowing they’re not going to be able to knock the ball about as easily as they had done last season. Graham Potter has received plenty of praise for his tactical versatility too this season, and we’d expect this clash to be something of a chess match. Those games tend to yield a lower number of goals, and while Fulham haven’t exactly been goal shy, much of their threat comes from the presence of Mitrovic, and Brighton have the tools to cope with the Serbian forward adequately, so the unders line appeals.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
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