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Southampton v Nottingham Forest
Nathan Jones has a serious task at hand in his first Premier League managerial role, as Southampton have now lost five in a row and have conceded at least two goals in their last four matches alone. All their key defenders are fit and playing so it wouldn’t come as a surprise if this was an area the Saint’s invested in over the January transfer window.
The Tricky Trees have shown some fight after their awful start to the season where they lost six of their opening eight matches. Forest’s record through their last nine is W2-D4-L3 and this includes four matches against the “Big Six” with a famous win over Liverpool and a draw most recently with Chelsea.
Despite playing better in recent weeks, Forests’ away record is a real concern with them yet to win on the road. They hold a poor D2-L6 record through their eight matches on the road this year, though it must be said that they have played all of the top four on the road and they couldn’t be expected to get results from those games.
Southampton have scored at least one goal in 22 of their last 25 home matches and we expect to see this carry on, whereas Forest have only scored one goal in their eight away matches (1-1 v Everton), so we think the win-to-nil market holds some value here.
SOUTHAMPTON TO WIN TO NIL
Leeds v West Ham
Leeds executed their gameplan well against Newcastle and a 0-0 result against a team that’s third in the table isn’t to be scoffed at. Jesse Marsch and Leeds have gone through a tricky spell of matches which saw them play Liverpool, Tottenham, Man City and Newcastle in the space of five matches. Considering they came out of these matches with a record of W1-D1-L2, that’s not half bad for a team of Leeds’ stature.
After two successful years with West Ham, David Moyes is now under the cosh with the Hammers sitting in 17th place. They’ve lost their last five in a row and six in their last seven with a win against Bournemouth to break up the losses. West Ham have played three of the “Big Six” during this time, including Arsenal (3-1), Manchester United (1-0) and Liverpool (1-0).
The Peacocks have a good record when playing at home (W3-D2-L3) with their losses coming against Arsenal, Manchester City and Fulham. However, they remain unbeaten against teams ranked ninth or lower, which includes a famous 3-0 win over Chelsea.
The Hammers have won just one of their eight away matches this year (W1-D1-L6) but their losses away from home seem to keep piling up. Their only win came against Aston Villa, which was back in August, as this is something that needs sorting if they are to stay up this year.
LEEDS TO WIN
Aston Villa v Wolves
Unai Emery has made a fantastic start to his Aston Villa career with three wins from his first four matches, equalling the number of wins Steven Gerrard managed from his 13 matches before he got the axe. This Villa side could be a real force when Emery can truly implement his style of play. His first four matches were against tough opponents in Manchester United, Brighton, Liverpool and Tottenham, with their only loss coming against the Merseyside team.
Wolves’ new manager, Julen Lopetegui, has now lost and won one match after a recent defeat to Manchester United, where Marcus Rashford came on from the bench to score the only goal of the match. It was a fairly even encounter, with Manchester United deservedly coming away with the win after their 16 shots with six on target and 55% possession.
It’s hard to go against Aston Villa here with Unai Emery clearly proving that he is the man for the job and the wins over the “Big Six” has only furthered that statement. Whilst Lopetegui has seemed to change something at Wolves, he can’t be held in the same bracket as Emery here. Wolves are also still without Pedro Neto and Sasa Kalajdzic, who are key figures on the attacking end, and they will certainly have less output with these two missing.
ASTON VILLA TO WIN
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
The Eagles have been on a good stretch of games recently with five wins from their last nine matches (W5-D1-L3), though they have benefited from a kind fun of fixtures. The hardest team they’ve faced was Fulham, who they lost 3-0 with nine men, but nonetheless this is the perfect time to play an out-of-sorts Tottenham side.
After losing just one of their opening ten matches (Arsenal 3-1), the visitors have gone a shocking run of W2-D1-L4. Although three of losses were against Newcastle (H), Liverpool (H) and Manchester United (A), it still doesn’t excuse the fact that they’ve lost three of their last four home matches, which is poor for a club that’s competing for the top four.
Spurs have developed a pattern of starting slow and Antonio Conte is unsure of what the problem may be, which appears to be their biggest issue at the moment. They have gone behind in their last seven matches in a row and even though they walked away with wins against Bournemouth and Leeds, this is certainly not a sustainable way to manage football games.
Richarlison and Bissouma are both out for this one and Kulusevski might not be fit enough after suffering a muscle injury in their latest match. Bentancur also remains out after his World Cup efforts for Uruguay and these four players are all at the starting level and will be sorely missed.
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