Man City v Fulham
A 3-1 win over Sevilla in midweek wasn’t as clear cut as it seems, with City trailing at the break before a competent second half display saw them snatch all three points. It was a makeshift city side though, and we’d expect to see their stars out in full force this weekend as they host Fulham.
The cottagers have exceeded expectation so far this season as an unbeaten run of four matches sees them up in 7th, though it looks extremely likely that run is going to come to an end here. Those four matches came against bottom half sides, while they’ve lost all three matches against sides currently above them in the table.
City have a perfect P9-W9 record at home this season in all competitions, scoring three or more in eight of those matches at an average of 4.1 goals per game. They have, however, conceded in over half of them, including their last two against Sevilla and Brighton, while Fulham have scored in all but two of their 13 league matches so far, including in all of those defeats against sides above them
MAN CITY TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Leeds v Bournemouth
A massive victory for the Whites at the weekend lifted them out of the relegation zone and ended Liverpool’s 29 match league unbeaten run at Anfield. The result ended an eight match winless run in the league for Jesse Marsch’s men, and back on home soil now they’ll be hoping they can win successive matches for the first time this season.
Bournemouth threw away a two goal lead against Spurs last weekend to make it three defeats on the bounce for Gary O’Neil’s men. While they went through a strong spell following O’Neil’s appointment, they never looked thoroughly convincing and the results are beginning to match the perfromances. Away from home they’ve only won a single match this season, coming against league whipping boys Nottingham Forest in a match where they went two goals down themselves, so it would be a surprise to see them take maximum points back from Elland Road.
Only against Arsenal and Fulham have Leeds lost at home this year, and they can feel aggrieved to have come away empty handed against the former after a missed penalty. Luis Sinisterra should be back in the fold for this clash to boost the host’s chances, and we’ll back them to get over the line here.
LEEDS TO WIN
Everton v Leicester
A convincing 3-0 victory at home to Palace was followed up by a good point away at Craven Cottage last weekend for the Toffees. Frank Lampard’s men have lost just twice at home this season, both coming by one goal margins to Chelsea and Man United, while they also earned a draw with Liverpool here.
Leicester have slipped back into the relegation zone following a 1-0 defeat to Man City, though they won’t be too disheartened by the loss considering their opponent. They travel to Goodison having lost five of their six away games this season, with their only such win coming against second bottom Wolves.
At this stage in the season, a point wouldn’t be the worst for either side and that looks to be the value bet on the 1x2 market. Everton are rightly favourites, though three of the last four meetings with Leicester at Goodison have finished all square, and we’re happy to back that outcome again.
Forest v Brentford
The Tricky Trees were humiliated on their trip to North London and although Arsenal were good on the day, Forest were poor and Steve Cooper said “the bare minimum you have to do is to stand up and be counted, fight and be hard to beat. We just didn't do that well enough at the start of the game.” Almost publicly urging his players to give more effort on the pitch.
After smashing Manchester United 4-0 on the second game day of the season, Thomas Frank’s Brentford have only won two of their last eleven games although only three of those eleven were losses but with only one goal in their last three games there may be trouble brewing at Brentford.
When a bottom six side (like Forest) plays host to a middle-third side (like Brentford) we can see that their record is W9-D4-L5 with Brentford appearing on this list with a 4-0 loss away at Aston Villa and two Nottingham Forest games also show up; 1-0 win versus Liverpool and a 3-2 loss against Fulham.
Considering Forest just beat Liverpool at home and both of their wins have come on home turf we feel comfortable in them getting the result here.
FOREST TO WIN
Wolves v Brighton
There is still a lot of work to be done in the Wolves camp after a draw against Brentford at the weekend which ended a run of two games without points despite playing an out of form Leicester side (lost 4-0 at home). They’ve only picked up four points in the last seven games and three of them came at home against Forest.
The Seagulls will still be in dreamland after a dominating display over Chelsea, Brighton have really taken it to the big teams this year with a win against Man Utd, a narrow loss against Spurs, a 3-1 loss result against Manchester City and a draw with Newcastle. Only five of their 12 games have come against teams in the bottom half of the current table so this could be a sign of bigger things on the horizon for Brighton.
Both teams have not scored in five of Wolves’ six home games this year and whilst this same market has only come off in two Brightons six away games, they were against Liverpool, Fulham, Man Utd and Man City who are all clearly far better teams than Wolves. The two games it did come off in were a 2-0 loss at Brentford and a 2-0 win against West Ham Utd.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (NO)
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