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Forest v Liverpool
The victory over Man City seems to have masked what has been a relatively poor start to the season for Liverpool, though in truth it was a tall order for any team to falter at Anfield, while City’s away record is actually not that impressive this season, now at W2-D2-L1.
Liverpool rode their luck at home to West Ham too as they were thoroughly unconvincing, while they’re still looking for their first away win of the season.
Forest are yet to gel, they’ve fought well in their last few games with draws against Villa, and more impressively, Brighton. They also only lost to Wolves via a spot kick, and could be worth getting behind here in some capacity given the prices.
Only against Bournemouth have Liverpool won by more than a single strike in their 10 outings this season, while Forest have only lost one of their home games by more than a strike, which came via a late Harry Kane goal against Spurs.
FOREST +1.5 HANDICAP
Everton v Palace
Frank Lampard’s men have fallen off the pace slightly and having gone six matches unbeaten, they’ve now lost three on the bounce. Admittedly, they’ve come against top six sides in Man United, Spurs and Newcastle, and up against Palace their fans will be expecting more.
That’s easier said than done though as Palace were impressive in their midweek clash with Wolves as they came from a goal down to claim a well earned 2-1 victory. They’ve picked up 10 points from a possible 12 against current bottom-six sides, though they are still seeking their first away win of the season, and Goodison Park isn’t an easy place to go.
In what is likely to be a game of fine margins, the unders market appeals. Four of Everton’s five matches this season at Goodison have seen under 2.5 goals land at an average of 1.4 gpg, the exception still seeing under 3.5 goals against Man United. Palace have seen three of their four road trips produce the same outcome at 2 gpg, with that average come despite a 4-2 defeat to City.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Manchester City v Brighton
Man City were handed their first loss of the season after failing to turn up at Anfield, though they did have a goal ruled out because of an Erling Haaland foul in the build-up. Nevertheless, the confidence amongst the City camp will still be sky high as they know this is just a temporary setback for the title favourites.
After his team scored three goals against Liverpool in his first game in charge, Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton are yet to score another goal with them being goalless through their last 270 minutes of play. Although a stalemate with Forest isn’t what the Brighton fans wanted there are definitely some positives as De Zerbi slowly implements his system, the Seagulls controlled 70% of the ball and created a lot with six of their 18 shots hitting the target.
The Cityzens have, unsurprisingly, dominated the past meetings between the two sides holding an impressive record of W9-L1, their only loss came in penultimate game of the 2020/21 season and by this point City had already won the title and probably had little motivation.
Every team that has gone to the Etihad has been played off the park, City have averaged 67% possession in their home games and if we exclude the Man Utd game they have 70%. City’s dominance with the ball has meant that no visiting Premier League team has had more than one corner in any game at the Etihad. If we couple this with the lack of corners in for Brighton’s opponents in their away games (6, 5, 3, 9, 2), and unders bet on corners looks the play.
UNDER 2.5 CORNERS
Chelsea v Manchester United
The Blues come into this game on a five-game unbeaten streak (W4-D1) and although their draw with Brentford mid-week was a bitter disappointment, Graham Potter can be happy with how he has started as he lays the foundations for the future at his new club.
Manchester United played Spurs off the park on Wednesday night, it was easily the best performance under Erik ten Hag and they did everything well but particularly not letting Tottenham back into the game by their constant press over the 90 minutes. Bruno Fernandes was back to his best after a quiet start to the season and although the Red Devils have beaten Arsenal, Liverpool and now Tottenham, these games have all been at home and their first away test comes with this game against the Pride of London.
Chelsea conceded in four of their opening six games under Thomas Tuchel but since Potters arrival they have seen their goals conceding rate drop to just one in their last four matches but it has to be said the Potter hasn’t had a proper test of quality yet with Chelsea only playing one side in the current top eight. Manchester United have won three of their five away games so far but these were against Southampton, Everton and Leicester who have been under par this year, all of these wins were by one goal and have lost the only away games against the current top ten (6-3 v City and 4-0 v Brentford).
The H2H’s in this game aren’t really dominated by any one with six draws coming in the last ten matches between the pair but United do take the cake in this one with a record of W3-D6-L1. Chelsea’s only game against a top six side finished in a draw this year and in previous years when the Blues play at home against a top six side, 30% of them have finished in a draw (since 2018/19, six out of 20).
THE DRAW
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