Fulham v Villa
Fulham have struggled after their epic start to the season. The London side has only managed four points from their last five games, three of which came against the worst team in the league, Nottingham Forest. The Fulham camp was definitely boosted by the return of Aleksandar Mitrovic and the Serbian goal machine will be looking to net for the eighth time this season.
Steven Gerrard is on thin ice at the moment, his Aston Villa side have been struggling to get points on the board with only two wins from their opening ten games. The ex-Liverpool man’s record at Villa is W12-D8-L17 (1.19 points per game) and when compared to the man he replaced, Dean Smith, we see that there is barely a difference with Smith’s record standing at W28-D16-L43 (1.15 points per match).
Fulham’s over goals record is certainly a trend we’re looking out for in this matchup, the Cottagers have only had one game finish with under 2.5 goals and their 2-2 draw with Bournemouth was the only Premier League match to finish with at least three strikes last weekend. Fulham’s play style means that they are playing far more direct, forward passes than they were in the Championship last season, and that has tended to lead to more chances at both ends of the pitch, with the Cottager’s 5.6 shots conceded per 90 the highest in the league so far.
This overs trend includes sides that are used to having low-scoring games like Brighton and West Ham; before West Ham played Fulham they had seven of their eight games finish with unders but the result was 3-1 to West Ham and the same goes for Brighton who had four of their first five game finish with unders and Fulham ended winning 2-1. However, Wolverhampton remain an anomaly with their 0-0 being the only game to finish with unders.
OVER 2.5 GOALS
Leicester v Leeds
Leicester dominated their previous match but failed to get a crucial result that they needed so desperately, they are currently tied with Nottingham Forest and only have a measly five points to show for themselves. What’s worse for the Foxes is that their stand-out player this year, James Maddison, is now suspended for this game after receiving his fifth yellow of the season.
Leeds were unlucky to not get a result against Arsenal, they are the only team to have faced the Gunners this season and come away with a higher xG. The game wis littered with controversy and if Jesse Marsch’s men play the same way here they should certainly come away with something, even if their away form is slightly underwhelming.
Indeed, Leeds have struggled on the road this year with only one point through their four away games, which came against Southampton who have shown a few signs of weakness as well. Both sides are thoroughly out of form with Leeds only gaining two points from their last six matches and Leicester only five throughout the course of the season.
Since the start of last season, Leicester have played 48 games and averaged 1.19 points per game but when Maddison is in the team (Started 36, Out for 12) their points per game (PPG) goes up to 1.33. The interesting thing about this is when they don’t have Maddison their PPG falls to 0.75 in the 12 games he missed. Their win percentage goes from 36% with Maddison in to just 17% when he doesn’t start.
DOUBLE CHANCE LEEDS-DRAW
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