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Leicester v Crystal Palace
Things were looking up for the Foxes after they managed to beat Forest 4-0 at home, sadly they couldn’t carry on their momentum as they lost their next game to Bournemouth (2-1). The fact that Bournemouth were able to score twice (a quarter of their total goals this season) against Leicester only highlights their main issue at the back.
Palace got back to winning ways with a victory against Leeds at the weekend. Eberechi Eze was on the scoresheet for the first time this season and scored the deciding goal in a 2-1 win.
Only one of Leicester’s league games has finished under 2.5 goals which was a 1-0 loss at home against Manchester United, there have also been four games (44%) that have gone over 3.5 goals. Exactly half of Palaces’ games have gone over 2.5 with two of those going over 3.5 as well. Even though only one of their four away games have had this result, Leicester defensive frailties will be seriously tested against the likes of Zaha, Eze, Edouard and Ayew.
OVER 2.5 GOALS
Wolves v Nottingham Forest
Wolves are goalless in their last three games and there are no signs of improvement as they are still without a manager. Although they’d been underperforming slightly this season, it seems a strange decision for the Wanderers to sack their manager and have no suitable replacements lined up.
Forest have sacked their head scout and head of recruitment after a summer transfer window where they spent £145m and the players have seemingly yet to gel.
This is Forest’s best chance all year to get some more points on the board by coming up against a Wolves side that hasn’t scored in 315 minutes of open play (one goal in 450 minutes and three goals all season). Forest haven’t exactly been formidable in front of goal with only seven through their nine games (four of which came in two games), while the Tricky Trees have only netted once on the road all season.
Another thing to keep your eye on is that at least one team has not scored in the last eight games that Wolves have played against newly promoted sides. BTTS (No) is a profitable market for the Wanderers with seven of their nine games finishing with a winning bet this season. Whilst Forest have had less success in this market with five of their nine coming off it is by no means a stat line to scare us away.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (NO) (0.5PTS)
Fulham v Bournemouth
Fulham have lost two on the bounce for the first time this season thanks to losses against Newcastle (4-1) and West Ham (3-1). Aleksandr Mitrovic is most likely going to be side-lined again for this game again because of the ankle injury he suffered against Newcastle, and their talisman will be sorely missed.
Bournemouth have really picked up form and are currently sitting 8th in the league table, amazingly sitting above Liverpool who beat them 9-0 earlier in the season. Even though they are unbeaten in their last five games (W2-D3) they are massively overperforming, particularly in terms of xG and xPTS. They are last in the xG table with 5.26 goals (8 total) and are also at the bottom of the xPTS with 6.43 (12 total). The Cherries are yet to outperform an opponent in terms of xG and coupled with them underperforming on xGA (15.39 xGA à 20 GA) would suggest that their streak of good fortune is going to come to an end soon.
All the xG stats point towards one thing, goals. Despite missing their star striker, in Mitrovic, the Cottagers still managed five match goals in their loss to Newcastle. That makes it four of four home games with over 2.5 goals and three of those went over 3.5. The Cherries are on a similar run with three of their four away games finishing with over 2.5 and 3.5 goals.
OVER 2.5 GOALS
OVER 3.5 GOALS (0.5PTS)
Tottenham v Everton
Tottenham will be very pleased with their 3-2 win over Frankfurt on Wednesday, although they maybe made it harder for themselves than it should have been with Frankfurt down to 10 men and Harry Kane missing a penalty to put them game to bed.
Everton’s six game unbeaten streak came to an end after losing to Manchester United at Goodison Park (2-1), the last time they achieved a six game unbeaten run in a single season was back in December 2017, so things are looking up for the Toffees.
Both teams to score seems like a market of some value when you consider that all of Evertons four away games have resulted in a winning bet whilst three of four Spurs home games had the same result. An issue with this bet is that Everton have only scored at Spurs’ home once in the last five meetings between the two sides.
Spurs dominance at their new home hasn’t gone unnoticed and they have now won their last seven league games at home. If Harry Kane can carry on his scoring form they look set to get over the line with yet another win.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
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