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West Ham v Brighton
Both teams had rather uneventful games last weekend with only one goal between the two matches, with that coming against West Ham thanks to Taiwo Awonyi who sunk the Hammers with his debut goal.
Brighton were by far the dominant force in their game against the Magpies and were quite unlucky not to walk away with the win. Nick Pope put in a couple of wonder saves and a goal line clearance from Kieran Trippier meant the game finished 0-0.
Brighton were known for having tight games last year with the majority of their matches finishing with under 2.5 goals (25 of 38). Last season Brighton played 14 games against teams that finished in the middle third (7th-14th) and ten of those finished with under 2.5 goals. Only five of West Ham’s games against the same opponents had the same outcome but three of those were at home which is around 43% of their home games. Considering that this is being priced around evens we think this is where the value lies.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Leeds v Chelsea
Leeds have made an unbeaten start to the season after beating Wolves on the first game week and drawing to Southampton in their most recent fixture. Jesse Marsch will be kicking himself that he couldn’t walk away with a win against the Saints after going 2-0 up with only 20 minutes left on the clock, and they’ll need a lot more resolve if they want to get anything from this game
Chelsea will feel aggrieved not to have walked away with three points in their home outing against Spurs having dominated proceedings, and while a lot of the focus was on Anthony Taylor after the match, Chelsea’s performance shouldn’t go unnoticed as they looked a very dangerous side.
Jesse Marsch has only been in charge of 14 Premier League games, three of which have come against teams that finished in the top six last year, they were winless through these games and only scored one goal. The two home games were losses-to-nil to Chelsea (3-0) and Man City (4-0) and their only goal came against Arsenal in 3-1 loss at the Emirates.
Thomas Tuchel’s men has already won-to-nil in an away game this year (1-0 v Everton), and when he has played against teams finishing in the bottom half he has recorded clean sheets in 50% of these 30 games.
CHELSEA TO WIN TO NIL
Newcastle v Man City
After beating Forest on the opening day of the season, the Magpies looked to carry their dominant display into the match against Brighton but were outclassed by Graham Potters’ side. The team can thank Nick Pope and Kieran Trippier who’s defensive heroics earned Eddie Howe’s side a point.
Man City are yet to concede a goal after beating West Ham 2-0 (A) and Bournemouth 4-0 (H). A strong start for Erling Haaland turned into a rather unproductive game against Bournemouth, he only had eight touches and made two passes (one of which was an assist). We don’t think this anything to worry about for the Citizens though and we’d expect the Norwegian to grow into the role as the season progresses.
Over the last two campaigns, Pep has only lost one away game against teams that finished in the middle third (W12-D3-L1) and the Citizens have 11 wins against these opponents in their last 13. During these 16 games, seven of them finished with over 3.5 goals.
Eddie Howe has limited experience at Newcastle but over the nine games played against teams that finished in the top six their record is W1-D1-L7, four out of these nine games finished over 3.5 goals (implied odds 2.25). Given that the odds for over 3.5 goals is closer to 2.5 this seems like good value, especially with the attacking talent on display.
OVER 3.5 GOALS
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