Fulham v Liverpool
Fulham will be looking to avoid the dop once again as they look to put a stop to the yo-yo. Starting the season off against Liverpool may hurt their confidence, though regardless of the result here, Marco Silva’s men know that it won’t define their season.
The Liverpool players will have put their defeat in the Champions League final behind them, though have been up and down during pre-season. A 3-0 loss to arch-rivals Manchester United was not a good way to kick off preceding’s but a 5-0 win over Leipzig and 3-1 result against Manchester City in the Community Shield last weekend would have softened the blow.
Liverpool have played 15 away matches against newly promoted over the past five seasons and are yet to lose (W11-D4-L0) which is the inverse of Fulham who have played 12 home games against teams who finished inside the top six and W0-D2-L10. Of the 15 games that Liverpool played only three finished with +3.5 goals (Brentford 3-3, Watford 5-0, Brighton 5-1) and only one of the 12 Fulham games had the same result (Arsenal 5-1).
Liverpool and -3.5 goals
Bournemouth v Aston Villa
After a two year sabbatical down in the Championship, Bournemouth have been promoted back to the Premier League after finishing 2nd and gaining automatic promotion last year.
Aston Villa will look to build on last campaign after a change in manager when Dean Smith was sacked and Steven Gerrard came in to replace him. After a successful spell at Rangers, the Liverpool legend failed to really get his side up and running, though there’s a positive aura around Villa this year with Gerrard having a full pre-season under his belt.
Over the last four meetings between the two sides have gone in Bournemouth’s favour who have won three of the four games with Villa winning the other. All three of Bournemouth’s win were by a 2-1 score whereas Villa won 1-0.
Aston Villa have won four of their last six away games against newly promoted sides over the last two seasons and there were over 2.5 goals in the same number of games, and we’re inclined to back this visiting side to get the better of their newly promoted hosts.
Aston Villa result
Newcastle v Nottingham Forest
The Magpies will want to start the season on a high note with a win here after what was a spectacular end to last campaign, which saw them go W12-D2-L5 after New Year’s day, they only had one win to their name through the first 20 games of the season.
Steve Cooper was the talk of the town last year. He not only rescued Forest from the bottom spot in the Championship but ended up promoting them to the position they are in today. They played and beat Arsenal and Leicester in the FA Cup last year before eventually succumbing to Liverpool (1-0).
Newcastle have won seven of their last eight home Premier League games and their only loss was against Liverpool (1-0) whilst churning out victories against likes of Arsenal, Leicester, Wolves and Brighton. Over these eight games, the Magpies won four of them to-nil and five of them by a one goal margin.
Newcastle to win
Tottenham v Southampton
Spurs beat their North London rivals to Champions League football last year after a fierce battle between the two sides that went right down to the wire. They made a statement this Summer by going out and spending £91.7m so far on three players (Richarlison, £52.2m, Yves Bissouma £26.28m, Djed Spence £13.23m) as well as bringing in Ivan Perisic and Fraser Forster on frees and Clement Lenglet on loan.
Southampton went shopping at the Manchester City academy and came out with Romeo Lavia and Gavin Bazunu for a combined £23m, they are both expected to be in the first team this year with Lavia being tipped for great things ever since he came onto the scene at the age of 15.
Over the last five seasons, Tottenham have played 30 home games against teams that have finished in the bottom six and have an outstanding record of W25-D4-L1, whilst Southampton have also played 30 away games against teams who finished in the top six with a poorW3-D6-L21. The only loss that Tottenham incurred was against Southampton.
Over the course of these 30 games played by both sides, Tottenham have W/W in HT/FT market 17 times and Southampton have L/L the same amount as well.
Leeds v Wolves
Jesse Marsch’s first spell in the Premier League was average to say the least, with a record of W4-D3-L5, it must be said that Leeds played Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea in his first 12 games at the club. His home record was even worse (W1-D2-L3), his only win came against Norwich (2-1) and two 1-1 draws with Southampton and Brighton whilst losing to Man City (4-1), Chelsea 3-0 and Aston Villa (3-0).
Bruno Lage imposed himself as a serious manager last year with Wolves having one of the better defensive records in the league and a tenth place position. One thing that has to be worked on his how the Wanderers move the ball in the final third, they were very wasteful last year and didn’t take the chances afforded to them.
Under Lage last year, Wolves played six away games against teams that finished in the bottom six and their record of W3-D2-L1 was marginally better than expected. Not a single game finished with +2.5 goals but in their home games against the same sides four games finished with over 2.5 goals which indicates to us that Lage changes his tactics when playing on the road.
Under 2.5 goals
Everton v Chelsea
Frank Lampard gets to play his ex-club on the first day of the season and will hoping to kick things off on a high note after what was Everton’s worst Premier League season to date. He will certainly be under the cosh and is favourite to get the boot first this season, and a poor start certainly won’t help his cause
Thomas Tuchel and his blues should be cautiously optimistic going into this season, they have lost some key defenders in Antonio Rudiger and Anders Christiansen whilst Romelu Lukaku has returned back to Inter on loan. They have certainly strengthened the side with the likes of Raheem Sterling and Kalidou Koulibaly coming in for a combined £85m and it will be interesting to see how both players progress under Tuchels system.
Despite Everton having a poor season last year, they still managed wins at home against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and also a draw against Spurs. Their record against the top six sides over the past 5 seasons is W9-D9-L12 and their home record against Chelsea is W4-D1, three out of the four were to-nil (1-0, 1-0, 2-0) whilst the other was 3-1.
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