Tottenham v Burnley
The North London Derby is over and Spurs were triumphant over their main rival in what was a poor display by Arsenal. Rob Holding didn’t look at the races and was sent off after a string of offences on Son Heung-Min.
Burnley are currently fighting for their future over the next couple of matches and although they are currently above Leeds because of a better goal difference, they would still love to gain some points here to put themselves in a better position. Manager of the Month Mike Jackson has a serious job on his hands, and a point here would go a very long way.
Whilst a win isn’t off the cards for Burnley here, it seems very unlikely, they did manage to get the best of Tottenham when they played at Turf Moor but judging by the atmosphere of the NLD the fans will be right behind their side, especially now sitting just one point off the Champions League spots.
Burnley’s record in away games versus the teams in the Top 11 places is W1-D6-L3 which is actually very impressive for a team fighting for relegation. For that reason, the value seems to lie with the visitors on this one, especially considering they’ve managed to pick up points in seven of the last 10 head-to-heads with the North London side, and the fact they’ve lost just one of their last five outings.
DOUBLE CHANCE DRAW-BURNLEY
Wolves v Norwich
The Wanderers were slaughtered by a rampant Manchester City side on Wednesday night, after going 1-0 down early on they responded well to bring the game back to level pegging but once the Citizens found their footing there was no stopping them. A Kevin De Bruyne masterclass proved too much on the day, though they’ll feel much more in control against the Canaries.
With Wolves being out of the European race and Norwich already relegated both teams aren’t fighting for anything but their pride. By Wolves’ standards they have been on a particularly poor run of form as of late with only ten points to their name in the last 12 matches but Norwich have been poor all year and in their record in their last 13 games has been W1-D1-L11.
It’s always difficult to call when two out of form teams play each other which is why we are going to steer clear of the match result and instead go for under 2.5 goals. This bet has come off in five of Wolves’ seven games against teams in the bottom four which includes the 0-0 draw the last time these teams met.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
West Ham v Man City
This could be the title-deciding game for Manchester City, with them currently three points ahead of Liverpool and +7 on their goal difference. This, in reality, means they only need to win one more game to clinch the title, provided that Liverpool can’t make up a goal difference of more than seven in their last two games.
West Ham are still fighting for European football and will be giving everything to win this game, their recent exit in the Europa League means the only way they get European football next year is through league position and with a win here they would be on equal points with 6th place Manchester United whilst also having a far better goal difference.
The Hammers have been better than most sides when playing the top teams at home, having already beaten Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham at home this year with their only losses being Arsenal and Manchester United. The team from East London are winless in their last three home games against Arsenal (L), Burnley (D) and Eintracht Frankfurt (L).
BTTS seems to be a value market when West Ham play teams above them in the table, with only one of their five home games against said opposition not resulting in a winning bet.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Watford v Leicester
Watford are on a 7 game winless streak with their only draw coming in their latest game against a struggling Everton side. It seems to be fitting end to the season for a team that never really got going in the first place.
Brendan Rogers has had ups and downs this season with their recent loss against Roma in the UEFA Conference League bringing an end to their campaign. They’ve nothing left to play for other than pride, and reeling from that European defeat we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the races here.
Leicester’s away form has been shocking in the past six months or so, with only one win to their name over their last 12 away games (W1-D4-L7). Although Leicester are sitting in tenth place, if we just look at their away matches we can see that they are ranked 17th in the league and have only gained 14 points from those outings. If you’d like a very safe bet it would have to be over 1.5 goals because Leicester have had this bet come off in 100% of their 17 away matches.
Despite Leicester's poor away form, Watford have the worst home record in the league with the Hornets only managing to achieve eight points from their 18 games at Vicarage Road. The Hornets have a record of W1-D1-L18 against teams positioned eleventh or higher (Leicester are tenth) their two results that weren’t losses came against Manchester United of all teams but we still think that Leicester match result is worth coupling up with the overs bet to generate some value.
LEICESTER TO WIN AND +1.5 GOALS
Leeds v Brighton
Leeds are in desperate trouble now after consecutive defeats to Man City (4-1), Arsenal (2-1) and Chelsea (3-0), with relegation rivals Everton and Burnley picking up points in recent games to push Jesse Marsch’s side into the bottom three. A home clash with Brighton is certainly a kinder assignment, though Graham Potter’s men are ending the season in strong fashion as they seek to complete a top-half finish.
The Seagulls are an impressive W4-D2-L1 since the start of April, as even the sole defeat came on the road at Man City, with their last two outings seeing them record sensational 3-0 and 4-0 victories over Wolves and Man Utd respectively. To add to Leeds’ worries ahead of this fixture, Brighton have been better on their travels this season and would be just one place above the relegation zone on home results, and as high as fifth in the table when limited to away games.
As if that wasn’t bad enough for the hosts, Daniel James’s reckless challenge on Mateo Kovacic means that he will play no further part this season, much like Luke Ayling, who was sent off at Arsenal a few days earlier. Raphinha is expected to recover from cramp to start here, but Leeds have a number of injuries including Patrick Bamford and there are doubts over Jack Harrison’s availability as well.
BRIGHTON + 0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Just one point and one place in the table separates these two sides and neither have anything to play for now, other than potential but unlikely top-half finishes.
Villa lost last time out hosting Liverpool, leaving them with five defeats from their last eight outings, though each loss was inflicted by sides amongst the top eight in the table. Against the rest of the division, Villa have won 12 of 20 matches this season – including five of the last six with the exception a stalemate with Leicester. On home turf alone, they’re W6-D2-L1 in such fixtures this term, while they also recorded victory on the road at Selhurst Park back in November.
Palace head into this fixture on a three-game unbeaten run, taking a point from Leeds and victories over Southampton and Watford, though each of those sides are mired in the bottom six of the table. Even those results leave them with just five victories from 20 clashes against teams ninth or lower in the table, as all of them were achieved against teams in that bottom-six bracket. Recent defeats to Leicester and Newcastle on their travels would suggest they may well struggle here, especially having gone down to 2-0 and 3-0 defats in their last two trips to Villa Park.
ASTON VILLA TO WIN
Everton v Brentford
From the depths of despair, Everton can almost taste survival now following a string of impressive results. They’ve lost just once across their past six outings, in a tough derby with Liverpool, also taking victories from clashes with Man Utd, Chelsea and Leicester.
Brentford are hardly in a bad vein of form either. They’re W6-D1-L2 since the start of March, scoring at least twice in each victory, as five of them saw them come out on top by at least two clear goals. Most notably, Chelsea were humbled 4-1 at Stamford Bridge, with Christian Eriksen’s arrival the catalyst for the uptick in form.
The Danish playmaker has played the full 90 minutes in all but one of the games over this period, a defeat on the road at Leicester, grabbing three assists and a goal so far for the Bees. Elsewhere, Ivan Toney has contributed nine goals from his past 12 starts in all competitions, taking his tally for the season to 14, which includes strikes in both encounters with the Toffees this season.
Everton missed a wonderful opportunity to improve their situation further midweek as they played out a goalless stalemate with an already relegated Watford, but they remain an impressive W6-D1-L2 at Goodison Park since Frank Lampard pitched up on Merseyside, kicking off this run with a 4-1 win over Brentford themselves in the FA Cup.
The other five victories all saw the Toffees register clean sheets, even if one was a kind tie against Boreham Wood, shutting out the likes of Man Utd, Chelsea and a rejuvenated Newcastle. Only Man City, Wolves and Leicester have found a way past an inspired Jordan Pickford, with each of Everton’s past seven at home featuring fewer than three goals in total.
Home and away, five of Everton’s last six have also gone under 2.5 goals. Although Brentford have seen plenty of goals in their recent outings, they’re sure to face a more organized Everton, with Frank Lampard unlikely to deviate from methods that are achieving results. Richarlison has been ploughing the lone forward role, with Dominic Calvert Lewin restricted to a place on the bench, and the engine room is lacking in creative with spark with Abdoulaye Doucoure partnering Allan should Fabian Delph fail to recover in time.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
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