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Portugal will be reasonably satisfied with their goalless stalemate with Spain on Friday, even if La Roja could have won the game had Alvaro Morata put on his shooting boots.
That continues a long sequence of low-scoring affairs when facing elite sides, often ending in stalemates, but Portugal can afford to be a little more expansive when taking on Europe’s lesser lights.
Portugal have lost just twice in 28 matches since the 2018 World Cup and only once in their past 14, with even that inflicted by a narrow 1-0 scoreline against France.
Excluding encounters with France and Spain, they’ve won 14 of 16 appearances since June 2019, losing just once, so there should be little doubt surrounding the outcome of this one.
Of those 14 victories, Portugal scored at least three times on 10 occasions, while they triumphed by at least two clear goals in 11 of them. However, they did concede in six of those wins as well, with even the likes of Lithuania and Luxembourg registering past them.
We’d avoid the win to nil market then, especially if Fernando Santos was to rest key figures such as centre-backs Pepe and Ruben Dias.
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PORTUGAL TO BEAT ISRAEL AND OVER 2.5 GOALS AT 7/5!
Portugal -1 Handicap
Israel haven’t encountered any elite teams of late, though did go down 2-0 to Denmark in March in recent World Cup qualifiers.
Poland won both meetings in their Euro qualifiers by a combined 6-1 scoreline, while in qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup, Italy and Spain won all four games by an aggregate 9-2.
Of course, those were all competitive matches, whereas in a friendly, Portugal may seek to rest one or two big names ahead of the Euros starting.
However, with Israel having lost those matches convincingly, it’s hard to look past anything other than an easy home win here.
Home advantage should also play a role, as Israel have been poor travellers. They’re W7-D3-L14 away from home since 2015, drawing with Scotland (twice) and Wales, while those seven victories have been achieved over North Macedonia, Albania, Liechtenstein, Latvia, Slovakia, Moldova and Montenegro.
15 of Israel’s past 22 defeats on the road since 2010 have come by a two-goal margin or greater, and we’d back Portugal to head to the Euros with a strong win under their belt.
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 08/06/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
