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Newcastle claimed an impressive scalp by downing Leicester 4-2 at the King Power on Friday and enjoy the extra day of rest before this fixture, with Man City going down to Chelsea at the Etihad on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola’s charges shouldn’t be suffering from tired legs however, with the Spaniard making nine changes to his starting line-up following last week’s triumph over PSG, as Kevin De Bruyne didn’t even feature in the matchday squad.
A second successive defeat to Chelsea may be concerning with the two facing each other again in the Champions League final, but the result still leaves Man City with an incredible 33 wins from 37 appearances in all competitions.
Other than Chelsea, Man Utd and Leeds were the only other teams to get the better of them, so Newcastle are understandably a long price to get something from this clash.
However, it’s worth noting that City haven’t thumped anyone off the park in some time, with none of their past 13 outings seeing them triumph by at least three clear goals.
Admittedly, they’ve faced a challenging schedule packed with quality opponents over the past couple of months, but even the weakest sides they encountered over this period (Aston Villa and Crystal Palace) were only downed by 2-1 and 2-0 scorelines respectively.
Man City To Win And Under 3.5 Goals
Each of Man City’s last 14 matches have seen fewer than four goals, and a reasonably low-scoring away win appears to be on the cards on that evidence.
That doesn’t mean Newcastle are incapable of registering a goal though. Both teams have scored in eight of the Magpies’ last 11 outings, and aside from their four-goal haul at Leicester last tie out, they’ve also registered against the likes of Man Utd, Tottenham, West Ham and Liverpool over this period.
Steve Bruce’s men are finishing the campaign strongly and have lost just twice in 10 appearances now (W3-D5-L2), though it’s difficult to see them causing an upset here.
With the title in the bag for Man City, but following their defeat at the weekend, Pep Guardiola will be keen to finish the season on a high and have two dead rubber games to fully recharge the batteries ahead of their Champions League final.
There is a danger that City could run riot if they get the early breakthrough, but we’d expect a more workmanlike performance given six of their last seven trips to bottom-half sides have seen fewer than four goals as they won them all.