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Consistency has been the real issue for Pep Guardiola’s men this season as having achieved their first back-to-back wins of the season, they then proceeded to put on a pretty dire display against a very beatable Manchester United side.
There’s a clear split that helps us in this one though, as while they haven’t won any of their five matches against current top-half sides (D3-L2), they’re unbeaten when coming up against the bottom half (W5-D1), and that record gets better the lower you go down the table as they’ve won all four of their matches against bottom-six sides, with all of them coming to nil.
West Brom have had a pretty similar trend form in that they have won every game against sides below them in the table and are winless against sides above.
Unfortunately, though, they sit 19th with their only win coming against lowly Sheffield United who prop up the table, while five of the six points they’ve accumulated so far have come against fellow bottom-five sides, so on form so far this season it’s hard to see this going any other way than to the hosts.
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What’s more, the Citizens have won all 14 head-to-heads across all competitions since December 2011 as they’ve scored a minimum of two in all but one, and at least three in 10 of those clashes and there’s no reason to think this will be any different.
The Baggies have lost five of their last six outings now and have scored just twice in their last five away games.
Only Sheffield United and Burnley have registered fewer than their 3.1 shots on target per game this season, while that figure drops to just 2.4 when up against the top-half sides in the league and against a defence as solid as City’s at the moment, it’s hard to make a case for the visitors to get on the scoresheet.
Man City To Win To Nil
City have kept six clean sheets in a row in all competitions which is a new club record, highlighting how much they have improved at the back this season, so the win to nil looks like the go to bet on this one as even if though they’ve never reached seven games without conceding before, it’s difficult to see that record slipping against a side like West Brom.
The hosts have numerous goalscoring threats, especially with Sergio Aguero returning from injury, though Guardiola has reiterated that the Argentine would be eased back into the side and with no guarantee he’ll start here, it’s not worth getting him onside in the scorers market, especially at such a short price.
In fact, with six players at Evens or shorter for this match, there’s not much value to be had in that market considering City haven’t been their usual prolific selves this season, so we’ll stick with the single bet for this game.