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Marseille have lost a disappointing 11 of their past 13 in Europe, winning just once, while they drew a blank on seven occasions.
Their defensive record has been particularly woeful as they conceded in every game and at least twice in all but one of these appearances, including a combined 8-0 scoreline across their three meetings with Man City and Porto so far this year.
Man City suffered defeat to French opponents Lyon in Portugal as their Champions League hopes were dashed in August, but they’ve won nine of 10 matches in this tournament at the Etihad since November 2018.
They scored at least twice in each victory as they averaged 3.5 goals per game over this period, while excluding the toughest sides they encountered (Real Madrid and Tottenham), City won six out of eight by at least two clear goals.
We’d expect them to grab at least two goals even if the result doesn’t matter, with squad players seeking to make an impression.
Ferran Torres To Score Anytime
Sergio Aguero remains sidelined and with Gabriel Jesus the only other natural central striker in the squad, Pep Guardiola won’t want to risk the Brazilian with a Manchester derby to come at the weekend.
City will be relying upon the likes of Ferran Torres, Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva for output, and the former has performed admirably when deployed in a central position.
He’s scored in three of four appearances in the group stages at a goal every 87 minutes, while the Spaniard demonstrated his eye for goal with a hat-trick against Germany during the most recent international break.
Man City -1 Handicap
Man City have won by at least a two-goal margin in four of their past five on home turf, with the exception when welcoming Liverpool, so they should be good for the handicap.
Impressively, they’ve kept a clean sheet in four consecutive matches in this competition, but with squad rotation we’d be wary of backing the clean sheet.
Indeed, both teams have still scored in five of their last seven at home in Europe, but such is their attacking threat that the handicap should pay out.