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David Luiz’s poor positional sense and rash actions made life easy for the hosts on the first day back, with the Brazilian lasting just under 50 minutes before seeing red. The 3-0 scoreline was as comfortable as it was justified and though Burnley should in theory be able to offer greater resistance, we wouldn’t be entirely sure of that either.
Sean Dyche’s men have hardly shown their best up against top-tier opponents this season, shipping a minimum of three goals in half of their 12 fixtures against the top eight sides in the table.
In fact, Man City have won by a minimum three goals in five of seven head-to-heads across all tournaments since 2017/18, as both exceptions came away from the Etihad.
The handicap does look a bit slim to get behind however. Of those 12 meetings with the top eight, Burnley are unbeaten across the last three as they beat both Leicester and the Red Devils, as well as drawing with Spurs.
City’s resounding result against Arsenal will be hard to repeat without such gifts from their opponent’s backline, while prior to the break Pep Guardiola’s outfit had failed to win by three clear goals in eight matches, as they won by more than a single strike just once.
Manchester City To Win To Nil
Of those last seven head-to-heads, three of four at the Etihad saw City register a clean sheet and that appears a more profitable route in this clash.
Indeed, Burnley are without first choice duo Chris Woods and Ashley Barnes up top, as well as Johan Berg Gudmundsson in midfield, with the likely replacements Jay Rodriguez, Matej Vydra and Jeff Hendrick.
Since the start of last season, Burnley have scored 22% fewer goals in the absence of Ashley Barnes and lost 10% more of their matches, while their output also reduces without top scorer Chris Wood, without whom they’ve lost an extra 18% during this period.
The partnership is strong and when both start together, Burnley are a much stronger force, scoring 48% more goals compared to when one or the other is missing.
