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Liverpool certainly know how to beat the odds in the knockout phase having dumped Barca out of this competition last season after going down 3-0 at the Nou Camp.
However, fellow Spanish outfit Atletico are far less prone to an away day collapse than the Catalan giants, and Liverpool will require something special at Anfield.
Fortunately for Jurgen Klopp’s side, their three recent defeats to Atletico, Watford and Chelsea have all come on their travels. Back at Anfield, they’ve been utterly imperious since the start of last season with a W41-D5-L1 record, with that sole defeat coming in the League Cup against Chelsea back in September 2018.
Much like with Liverpool, Atletico have made a fortress out of their home stadium, but results away from the Wanda Metropolitano or on neutral territory have left a lot to be desired – winning just two of 15 since early October.
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Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT
They did manage nine draws over this period and will be hopeful of grinding out another here, but they’re only W2-D1-L4 away in Europe since the start of last season so we’re not overly confident about their prospects.
In fact, the two wins came over Monaco and Lokomotiv Moscow, the draw against Club Brugge, while they trailed at both half-time and full-time in defeats when visiting stronger opponents Juventus (twice), Dortmund and Leverkusen.
We’d virtually rule out the away win then, especially as Liverpool are unbeaten here in Europe under Klopp.
In fact, since 2011/12, teams that have lost 1-0 on the road in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie have improved back on home turf, going W8-D4-L2 as they led at both half-time and full-time in all but one of those victories.
Given Liverpool have produced W/W doubles in eight of their last 11 at home in this competition, including impressive victories over Man City, Roma, PSG, Napoli, Porto and Barcelona, they look worth siding with to stay right in this contest.
Whereas Diego Simeone has his strongest 11 available to him, Klopp will be sweating on the fitness of Jordan Henderson, and though Andy Robertson is expected to start, Alisson Becker has been ruled out completely.
However, while Adrian gave a reminder of his sometimes erratic nature, gifting Chelsea their opener in the FA Cup last week, Liverpool coped without the Brazilian between the sticks earlier on in the season as they marched into an early title lead domestically. Expect Liverpool to be on the front foot here and do most of the attacking.
Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT At 7/5
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