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A 2-1 defeat at home to Everton saw Leeds took another hit as they try to distance themselves from being dragged into a relegation scrap, and while that outcome is unlikely at this stage, it’s certainly a scenario that they’d want to avoid by picking up some points in their coming games.
Palace were on the other end of that same 2-1 scoreline when they came from behind to beat Newcastle on Tuesday, though they had very little of the ball and conceded a whopping 21 shots, and we’d expect this game to play out in a similar fashion.
Only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have had more possession than Leeds this season, while Crystal Palace rank 16th in that regard and while possession is a poor indicator on who will win, it does give an indication of the balance of play.
Leeds peppered the Everton goal for long periods of their match and hit the woodwork twice from their 16 shots so they may feel unlucky to have come away with nothing.
Bielsa’s men are yet to beat a side at home that are currently placed 15th or higher in the league, going D2-L5 against such sides, while in the reverse fixture it was Palace who ran out convincing winners by a 4-1 margin, so this is a far cry from an easy win for the hosts.
They’ve only played two middle-third sides in that time though, drawing 0-0 with Arsenal and losing by a narrow 1-0 margin to Wolves so we can see this being another close affair.
Under 2.5 Goals
Palace are winless on the road against middle-third sides this year going D1-L3 in such games, while they failed to register a single goal across those fixtures, meaning both sides are looking for their first respective home/away goals of the campaign against this opposition type.
Indeed, 69% of Palace’s away goals this season have come against the current bottom five in the league, as have 71% of Leeds’ home goals, so it’s difficult to envisage a goals fest and Unders looks a smart play here.
There’s an array of attacking talent on display here, with Patrick Bamford, Jack Harrison and Raphinha all getting on the scoresheet in recent weeks.
However, with the Whites scoring one or fewer in eight of their last nine home outings, there doesn’t seem much value in getting behind them.
Wilfried Zaha and Eberechi Eze pose the biggest goalscoring threats for the visitors as a lot of their attacking prowess funnels through the duo, but goals have been few and far between for them this season and we’ll avoid a goalscorer bet for this matchup.