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Arguably one of the shocks of the opening round came in the first leg of this tie and Porto took a 2-1 win at home to leave this tie very much in the balance.
Traditionally Juve have had one of the strongest defences in Europe, and on home soil this season Andrea Pirlo has ensured that resolve has continued.
Indeed, they’ve conceded just nine goals at the Allianz Stadium in Serie A this season, while across all competitions, while Lazio’s goal at the weekend following an error from Dejan Kulusevski was the first the Old Lady have conceded here in eight matches.
Porto currently sit 10 points off the lead in the Primeira Liga and look extremely unlikely to repeat their title triumph of last season.
While a lot of that is down to how strong Sporting Lisbon have been, Porto also haven’t helped themselves at times, and have now won just three of their last nine matches across all competitions.
The most impressive of those was the first leg of this tie, though wins over Maritimo and Gil Vicente, both of whom are currently in the relegation zone in Portugal, aren’t exactly anything to write home about.
Juventus -1 Handicap
While they do remain unbeaten on the road in 2021, having won four of their six matches, a closer look reveals that’s not as impressive as it would seem considering their run of games, with all four victories coming against the current bottom-four sides in the league, and while a draw against Sporting Braga isn’t a poor result, Juve are a level up so they may find it difficult to hold out here.
Confidence wasn’t high for the Italian outfit heading into the last leg, having lost and drawn their two previous matches, though it’s a different story this time around as they’ve won three of four unbeaten matches in the interim and scoring at least three times in each of those victories.
Last match was the only time Porto have ever beaten Juventus, and we’d be surprised if they now went to Turin and were able to qualify.
Excluding qualifiers, Porto have gone D2-L5 in Italy since the turn of the century, with both draws coming in the Europa League, meaning they’ll be looking to make history by avoiding a Champions League defeat in Italy for the first time, and we can’t get behind that outcome this time.
Cristiano Ronaldo has proven time and time again that he can step up when his side need him, and having been brought on as a substitute in the weekend win vs Lazio, he should be well rested here and raring to go.
Each of Juventus’ last nine victories at home have come by more than a single strike, so on that basis we’ll go to the handicap market to find value, especially considering a two-goal margin may be needed to qualify.
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