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The tough fixtures come thick and fast for Scott Parker and his Fulham side having faced Leicester and Man City in their last two games.
A 2-1 win over the Foxes would have raised some eyebrows and even if they end up losing this, they would have taken three points from those three games considering the form they were in coming into that run.
Whenever a side down the lower end of the table faces Liverpool it’s an opportunity to claim a scalp, especially with their recent injury concerns, though Jurgen Klopp’s men keep pulling the rabbit out of the hat, not least in impressive 3-0 and 4-0 victories over Leicester and Wolves, respectively.
What should be noted though, is both those wins came at Anfield, where the Reds are effectively unbeatable at the moment, and it’s their away form that leaves a lot to be desired.
They’ve won just once on the road all season, which came against at Stamford Bridge in their first away game as the blues went down to 10 men with the scores still level. They’ve since drawn three and lost one which was that humbling 7-2 defeat at Villa Park.
However, that’s really the only thing working against Liverpool in this clash. Fulham have an indifferent home record of W1-L4 with the only win coming against strugglers West Brom, while Liverpool are on an impeccable 18 match winning run against promoted sides going back to a 1-1 with Newcastle in the early stages of the 2017/18 season.
They’ve scored at least twice in 16 of those matches, though it’s noticeable again that they’re not quite as convincing on the road with four of the last five coming my narrow one goal margins, including this fixture two years ago and that looks to be where the value lies here.
Fulham have been extremely inconsistent on the goals front, with it being an exact 50/50 split for ‘Overs’ and ‘Unders’ across all competitions so far this campaign, and while Liverpool still average the most match goals per game in the league at 3.91, that’s slightly flattered by the nine-goal clash at Villa Park while four of their last five have seen ‘Unders’ come in, so at the prices we’ll ignore the goals market here.
The Reds are down as extremely strong favourites for this clash and on the surface it’s easy to understand why, though it seems little attention is paid to their contrast in fortunes when at Anfield and when away.
If this match had come a few weeks ago, we’d be more inclined to get the hosts onside with more conviction owing to the Champions’ vast injury list, though Klopp now has a near full strength side to choose from and even though Virgil van Dijk is still missing, they’ve only conceded seven in 12 games without him and we’ll stick with a more reserved handicap bet for this match.