Chelsea v Luton
The two FA Cup games that Chelsea have played this year have both resulted in BTTS markets coming off despite playing against much worse opponents in Plymouth Argyle and Chesterfield. This is even more surprising when you consider that for both matches Chelsea played a strong team consisting of mostly first-team players.
This bet has also come off in nine out of their last 13 league matches and whilst for Luton games this season, 41% of their home games have resulted in BTTS.
Given that Thomas Tuchel likes to start strong teams in Cup matches and the fact that their next two fixtures are against Burnley and Newcastle before the Blues go to France to play their second leg Champions League game against Lille we believe they will still put out a strong team, though Andreas Christensen, Cesar Azpilicueta and Thiago Silva are all doubts for this one and it’s unlikely that any will be risked, leaving their defence slightly more vulnerable.
CHELSEA TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Southampton v West Ham
Three out of the four combined FA Cup fixtures these teams have played in have been resolved in extra-time, both of Southampton's games and West Ham’s excursion to Kidderminster Harriers had the same result.
Southampton have only lost one game in their last ten Premier League fixtures, picking up 19 points along the way (W5-D4-L1). West Ham are right alongside with a W5-D2-L3 record from their last ten which leaves them with 17 points from those outings, so there’s little to split the two in terms of form.
The Saints are listed as favourites to win this game which must be mostly down to their Home field advantage and their slightly better run of form in recent weeks.
We think that West Ham will be focusing more on the league than the Cup and considering that the Hammers are set to play Liverpool three days after this game, we believe there is a good chance that West Ham will put out a weaker side with European football still beckoning for them.
SOUTHAMPTON TO WIN
Liverpool v Norwich City
It’s been just two weeks since these two sides last faced off, with Liverpool claiming a 3-1 victory over Premier League whipping boys Norwich. Even though Milot Rashica opened the scoring just after the start of the 2nd half, Liverpool came back to score three unanswered goals from Salah, Mane and new addition to the squad Luis Diaz.
The goal that Norwich scored in their 3-1 loss was the first time that the Canaries had been able to score against a team in the top eight.
The fact that Norwich have lost all of their games against top-eight opponents to-nil, bar the game against Liverpool (9/10), it’s likely that they may revert to the norm again here.
Norwich only managed two goals in their games in their previous rounds, against Charlton and Wolves, though with that said, Liverpool also managed to concede in two home games against Shrewsbury and Cardiff.
Klopp likes to start strong teams in the Cup fixtures and because of this we will likely see two of Jota, Diaz, Mane or Salah who have all shown the ability to score goals.
Liverpool have averaged 2.77 goals in all home matches this season and have had +2.5 team goals in 14/25 Premier League games this season (11/16 against bottom ten opponents).
LIVERPOOL TO WIN AND +2.5 LIVERPOOL GOALS
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