Recent Form
Bayern already hold fond memories of visiting London as they trashed Spurs 7-2 in the group stages, while they’ve won five of their last seven clashes with English sides, as Liverpool last year provided the two exceptions.
They won the other group stage encounter with Spurs 3-1, and recorded a trio of 5-1 victories over Arsenal between November 2015 and March 2017, with those two outfits nearer to Chelsea’s level than Jurgen Klopp’s European champions.
Although Chelsea should offer greater resistance than their London counterparts, Hansi Flick’s side come into this fixture off the back of 10 wins from 11 unbeaten games by an aggregate scoreline of 37-10.
Nine of those fixtures saw at least four goals, and given Chelsea’s group stage matches included 4-4 and 2-2 draws with Ajax and Valencia respectively, there’s certainly potential for a high output here.
Chelsea are at a similar price to win this game as Lyon are hosting Juventus, with that surely the biggest mismatch the Last 16 has to offer.
However, the disparity can be explained by the Blues’ poor showings at Stamford Bridge this term, where they’ve actually picked up fewer points at home than they have on the road in the Premier League, despite having played a game more at Stamford Bridge.
In fact, excluding lower-league opponents in domestic cup action, as well as those below the Gunners in the league, Chelsea are just W2-D4-L4 across all competitions at the Bridge this season.
The defeats came when hosting Valencia, Liverpool and Man Utd twice, while even bottom-half teams Bournemouth, Southampton and West Ham have gotten the better of them there.
Bayern Munich To Beat Chelsea
Chelsea may have Tammy Abraham back from a spell on the sidelines, but whereas Bayern are largely injury-free at present, the Blues are currently without N’Golo Kante and quite possibly Christian Pulisic too.
Further, whereas the hosts scrapped through the group stages by the skin of their teeth, Bayern were utterly dominant as they recorded a perfect six wins from six games and a +19 goal difference, so they deserve to start as clear favourites and we’d still take them at 4/5.
Lewandowski To Score First
Robert Lewandowski can strike at any time, but having opened the scoring no later than eight minutes in half of Bayern’s last six outings, he appears well placed to draw first blood.
The Polish hitman has registered some astonishing numbers this season, netting 10 times across his five group stage appearances as he scored at least once in each, while he’s bagged 25 goals in 23 Bundesliga matches as he found the net in 18 of them.
Those Champions League goals came at a rate of one every 44 minutes, while he has five goals in his last four appearances against London-based sides.
Bayern Munich To Beat Chelsea At 4/5
Robert Lewandowski To Score First At 23/10
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