Bayern v Arminia
Bayern Munich went to Dynamo Kyiv in the midweek European fixture, where they enjoyed a 2-1 victory in the snow. A fantastic bicycle kick from Robert Lewandowski opened the proceedings, keeping up his incredible goal scoring record and increasing his chances of finally winning his first Ballon D’Or.
Armenia managed to pinch a draw in this fixture last season, with that tie ending 3-3, while they also netted in a 4-1 defeat at home so the both teams to score could throw up some value. Since the 2016/17 season, when Bayern have played bottom-six teams at home, they have never lost and won 80% of the time, though they’ve conceded in 57% of those matches.
Bayern have failed to keep a clean sheet in the last five games against bottom six teams when playing at home, considering that they haven’t failed to score in 60 games versus teams in the bottom third, this is a good value market to bet on.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Wolfsburg v Dortmund
Dortmund are now out of the Champions League after a shocking defensive display against Sporting Lisbon where they lost 3-1. Their discipline also came into question with Emre Can receiving a straight red card, after only being on the pitch for 29 minutes, for lashing out at an opponent.
Wolfsburg have to get a win in the final game of the group stages if they want to have a chance at qualifying for the next round in the Champions League. Following another disappointing showing from a German side in European football, where they lost 2-0 to Sevilla in which they only managed one shot on target throughout the whole game.
In the last ten games these sides have played each other Dortmund have an outstanding record, having won nine out of the ten and drew the other 0-0. They have also kept a clean sheet in nine out of the ten games only conceding one goal in the last 10 matches against Wolfsburg. Despite Dortmund’s poor form in the Champions League, they are still playing well in the Bundesliga sitting only one point behind league leaders Bayern Munich.
DORTMUND TO WIN TO NIL OR TO WIN
Leipzig v Leverkusen
RB Leipzig enjoyed a 5-0 thrashing over Club Brugge in the Champions League on Wednesday night, a brace from both Christopher Nkunku and Emil Forsberg sealing the points. Nkunku has now managed 13 goals and eight assists in 19 games this season he will be the difference-maker in this game if he can carry on this good run of form.
Leverkusen have dropped off slightly after their impressive start to the campaign and their win over Bochum in their last outing was their first in five games. They’re still proving hard to beat though, and have won three of their last four across all competitions.
Since the start of the 2016/17 season, these teams have played each other ten times in the league and Leipzig have only lost on one occasion, their record is W5-D4-L1. Out of these ten games, Leipzig have only managed to keep three clean sheets whilst Leverkusen haven’t managed to get any, though BTTS is not looking like a valuable market. The most value lies in Draw at HT, as seven out of the ten head-to-heads have been level at the break.
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