Dortmund v Koln
Having gone down 4-0 at the Johan Cruyff Arena last week, Dortmund have responded with back-to-back victories over Arminia and Ingolstadt, though both were very routine and Koln will pose a bit more of a threat than those sides.
Indeed, having been two goals down in the first half to Bayer Leverkusen, Koln showed their character and fought back to claim a point. However, that result came on home soil and other than a 2-0 victory over Stuttgart in their midweek cup clash, Koln are still winless on the road this season. In fact, they’ve won just one of their last 11 trips going back to mid-February, and up against a side as prolific as Dortmund they may run into some trouble.
BVB have won nine home league games on the bounce since mid-April, scoring at least twice in each victory and three or more in seven. They’ll have to make do without Erling Haaland though, with the Norwegian striker due a lengthy spell on the injury table. The club have seen a 37% decrease in output when Erling Haaland hasn’t started since the beginning of last season, so while they should have enough to get over the line, they may not run riot against tricky opposition and an unders bet looks worth getting onside too.
DORTMUND TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich
Bayern were truly humbled in the DFB Pokal in midweek, succumbing to a 5-0 defeat to Monchengladbach despite fielding a full-strength side. While the Bavarian giants are the most ruthless team in Europe on their day, they have a tendency to not show up on the odd occasion. That rarely happens twice in a row though, as they haven’t tasted back-to-back defeats over 90 minutes since successive 2-1 defeats to Leverkusen and Gladbach in December 2019, though Union Berlin won’t be a pushover.
The side from the capital are currently fifth in the table, and a win here would take them within three points of Bayern. They’re improving year on year having finished 11th and seventh in their two Bundesliga campaigns, and are on course for another very strong season, losing just one of their 12 domestic games do far, with that loss coming at the hands of Dortmund. They lost 10 of their 12 matches against top-six finishers in the debut Bundesliga season, though last year they stepped up a level and actually went unbeaten at home against that bracket, taking a 1-1 draw in both home and away games against Bayern so they’ll feel confident here, and we’ll get behind them on the handicap.
UNION BERLIN +1.5 HANDICAP
Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
A phenomenal start to the season has somewhat unravelled for Leverkusen who are now winless in four matches in all competitions and have dropped down to fourth in the league table. They’ve lost back-to-back home outings now, and while the first was understandable against Bayern (even if the manner of defeat can be questioned), a 2-1 defeat in the cup to second division Karlsruhe can’t, and confidence will be low for the hosts.
Wolfsburg are in even worse form though, with four successive defeats to their name and no wins in eight. It’s hard to pinpoint where it’s gone wrong, as both defensive and attacking departments seem to be underperforming. Indeed, they’ve scored just five goals across those eight outings, and conceded 14 in the last six of those. The visitors look like the team more off colour at the moment, and despite a confidence hitting loss in midweek, we’d expect Leverkusen to bounce back strongest here.
LEVERKUSEN TO WIN