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Brighton threw up a shock result against Southampton last weekend having won a match despite losing on the expected goals metric, as usually their matches tend to operate the other way round.
Lewis Dunk and Leandro Trossard scored either side of a Che Adams to give the Seagulls a huge three points in their battle against relegation, and a win here would certainly go a long way to achieving that in what is effectively a relegation six pointer.
Newcastle have been flirting with the drop zone for a while now and currently sit two points above 18th placed Fulham, albeit with a game in hand.
On balance of play, Fulham are looking a more dangerous side at the moment, though you can’t underestimate Steve Bruce’s experience when compared to Scott Parker and Graham Potters’, so it will be interesting to see which two of those clubs survive the drop.
The Magpies have won just two of their last 19 games across all competitions, though after a period of looking like they couldn’t buy a point, they’re starting to look much harder to beat, despite missing the likes of Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin.
They’ve drawn their last three matches to Wolves, West Brom and Aston Villa, where captain Jamal Lascelles has taken up both defensive and offensive duties, scoring both their goals in the absence of that aforementioned attacking trio.
Brighton To Win And Under 2.5 Goals
We wouldn’t bank on the centre-back bailing his side out regularly though, and Brighton may just have too much attacking potency for this Newcastle side.
Only Liverpool and Man City have more expected goals this season than the south coast side, while only Sheffield United, Crystal Palace and West Brom have fewer than Newcastle.
The head-to-heads don’t make for pretty reading if you’re a Newcastle fan either, as they’ve never beaten Brighton in their seven Premier League meetings, while they haven’t even managed a single goal since Graham Potter came in at the beginning of last season.
The Seagulls won the reverse fixture 3-0 back in September and were head and shoulders above their opponents that day, the only question hovering over them is their proficiency in front of goal.
Only Fulham, Burnley and Sheffield United have a lower chance conversion rate than Brighton’s 18% this season, and the fact that their game last weekend was the first time that they’ve managed to score more than once in their last 12 matches against Premier League opposition suggests this is bound to be a low scoring affair.