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Liverpool suffered a rare off-night on Wednesday hosting Atalanta, but the Italian outfit have been hugely impressive over the last couple of years under Gian Piero Gasperini.
That’s especially true going forwards where they’ve been Serie A’s top scorers in each of the past two campaigns, managing an incredible 98 goals in their third-placed finish last term, whereas Brighton don’t have the same kind of weaponry at their disposal.
Liverpool’s backline also had a very unfamiliar feel to it midweek, with Nico Williams and Kostas Tsimikas in the full-back positions and the inexperienced Rhys Williams partnering Joel Matip at centre-back.
Tsimikas was beaten by a cross over his head for the first goal and although a similar thing happened to second-half substitute Andy Robertson for the second, Williams was clearly guilty of switching off as he failed to track the run of goalscorer Robin Gosens through the middle.
The versatile Fabinho will return to the starting line-up here and provide some leadership alongside Matip. It would be no surprise to see the ever-reliable James Milner resume right-back duties either, while regular Robertson should come back into the side on the other flank.
Despite the injury nightmare Liverpool have endured this season, prior to their midweek defeat, they had still conceded just three goals in seven matches since key man Virgil van Dijk was scythed down in the Merseyside derby.
That includes clean sheets away at Ajax and Atalanta in the reverse fixture, as well as last weekend hosting Leicester, while they also held on for a 1-1 stalemate facing Man City at the Etihad before the international break.
Liverpool To Win And Over 1.5 Goals
Brighton picked up just their second league win of the season away at Villa last time out, but that was their first victory in eight across all competitions. They picked up stalemates with Palace, West Brom and Burnley, though lost encounters with quality outfits Man Utd (twice), Everton and Spurs.
In fact, including an opening day defeat hosting Chelsea, as well as further games with top sides Man Utd, Liverpool and Man City at the tail end of last season, the Seagulls have lost all eight matches versus the better teams over this period.
They conceded a minimum of three goals in all but one of these, while they went down by at least two clear goals on six occasions.
Given the Reds have won all six head to heads since Brighton were promoted, they ought to bounce back here.
Jurgen Klopp may have numerous absentees, but he does have key man Mo Salah back in the fold, while opposite number Graham Potter has concerns of his own.
Former Liverpool man Adam Lallana was forced off with a groin problem last time out and is a doubt, while highly promising right-back Tariq Lamptey is suspended following his sending off.
The Seagulls have tasted victory just once in 13 home league games during 2020 so far, losing six of the last 10, and that shoddy defensive record against the top teams sees no sign of abating.
However, Liverpool have hardly been firing on all cylinders away from home, so we’ll play it cautiously and back the away win and over 1.5 goals.
They should be expected to grab at least two, though with a tough encounter against Ajax just three days later, they’ll want to store some energy in reserve and may be content with game management rather than pushing hard for a higher output.
Liverpool To Win And Over 1.5 Goals At 5/6
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