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These two sides have won seven of the last nine Copa America’s between them, including each of the last three with the Chileans taking two of those.
Brazil still managed to top group B as expected, despite dropping points against Ecuador in their final group game, though with top spot already secured they won’t dwell on that result too much and we won’t read too much into it.
They’ll now come up against difficult opposition in the form of Chile, whose defeat against Paraguay last time out was their first so far in the competition, and they’ll no doubt prove extremely difficult to break down.
That defeat was Chile’s first in seven matches, as they’d drawn four of their previous five. The main issue for La Roja recently has been output and although they’re tough to break down, they’ve offered truly little in the way of attacking threat.
Indeed, they’ve averaged less than a goal per game since June 2019, scoring 18 times in 19 outings since then and against a side as prolific as Brazil, you’d expect they’d need more than a single strike to qualify from this tie.
Brazil To Win And Under 3.5 Goals
Brazil have been looking ominous for the rest throughout this competition and, in fact, in the build-up. Their 1-1 draw with Ecuador was the first time they’ve failed to win a match for 11 games now, while it was only the third time in that run that they’ve not kept a clean sheet.
They’ve also managed an average of 2.64 goals per game in that run, so it’s difficult to see anything other than a Lo Canarinho win here, especially on home soil.
This is only the second meeting between these two nations since 2015, with the other finishing 3-0 to Brazil, though we wouldn’t necessarily expect a similarly convincing scoreline here.
That was the first time that Brazil have beaten Chile by more than a goal in their six meetings over the last decade, with their only major tournament meeting in that time ending 1-1, while 17 of Chile’s last 18 Copa America defeats have also seen under 3.5 goals land as they tend not to get completely overrun.
While Brazil’s dominant form heading into the competition garnered some momentum, it’s difficult to look at tournament qualifying matches in the same vein as major competition knockout matches, and we’d expect them to be slightly more reserved against a Chile side that has been known to cause problems, and the result and unders market looks to be the value bet here.