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Neither of these sides have started this campaign particularly well when compared to last season (Dortmund -3 points from last year, Bayern -4). This has been the worst start (points wise) to a Bayern season in the last ten years as we have to go back to the 2010-11 season were Munich had 11 points from their opening eight matches, though we’d be surprised if they didn’t turn it around and catapult themselves to the top of the table in the coming weeks.
It’s still widely regarded that these two sides are the most likely to be battling it out for the title despite their respective starts, and this is the perfect opportunity for either to go three points clear of their rivals.
The Black and Yellows have lost three of their opening eight league matches, two of which were away, and have struggled to return to their goalscoring ways after the departure of Erling Haaland having scored 11 less goals when compared to the same stage last season.
Over 3.5 Goals
Three of their five wins have come narrowly against sides currently in the bottom-five in the table, and a 3-0 defeat to Leipzig is a good indication of how this one might pan out for them.
Bayern are currently lacking consistency in the league. They have already managed three wins by four or more goals (6-1 v Frankfurt, 7-0 v Bochum and 4-0 v Leverkusen) but went through a 20 day period of D3-L1 where they only managed four goals and lost to nil away at Augsburg, leaving them third in the table.
Despite Dortmund being a highly reputable side, they have only won one of their last ten league matchups against the Bavarians. 2018/19 was the last league win for BvB (3-2), though they did also manage victory in the German Super Cup a year later, leaving their record against Bayern in all competitions since 2017/18 as W2-D1-L12.
Over 4.5 Goals
This derby is known for its high scoring games, and the number of goals scored over the last 15 clashes is phenomenal with 62 goals in all competitions since 2017/18. 13 of the 15 games finished with over 2.5 goals (87%), 12 also ended with over 3.5 goals (80%) while nearly half saw a minimum of five strikes in total (47%).
We have definitely seen a decrease in goals this season because of the departures of Haaland and Lewandowski, though both teams have still had a considerable number of games with over 3.5 goals; Bayern 50% and Dortmund 38%, so it’s hard to ignore that trend and we’ll opt for yet another high scoring Der Klassiker here.
OVER 3.5 GOALS
OVER 4.5 GOALS
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