PRICE BOOSTS MAX BET £10
After sealing their first win at Twickenham over England in 38 years, Scotland will be buoyant hosting this Welsh side.
There’s no hiding from the fact that the Red Roses presented the Scots with an excellent opportunity to capitalise on their rigid and slow-paced game. Still, credit must go where it is due, as they held on when going down to 14-men following Finn Russell’s yellow card and on reflection they dominated every aspect of the game.
Wales won their opener too against Ireland to take their winning percentage under Wayne Pivac to 36%. We wouldn’t get too carried away with that performance though with Andy Farrell’s men down to 14-men for over an hour.
Indeed, when Peter O’Mahony was given his marching orders the scores were 3-0 to Wales, and the Irish should probably have won the game if it wasn’t for a missed touch kick from replacement fly-half Billy Burns in stoppage time.
Scotland 1-12 Point Margin Win
The visitors’ only other victories have come against Italy (twice) and Georgia since the start of 2020. Another lacklustre performance against Ireland was probably the most they could have hoped for back at Principality Stadium, but they’ll likely be exposed at Murrayfield this weekend.
They do have a surprisingly good record at Scotland’s home though, winning five of their six visits since 2009, but the most recent two have been split.
Gregor Townsend’s men overcame Wales 14-10 at Parc y Scarlets in the delayed 2020 Six Nations. That result is a much better reflection of the quality the teams currently possess, and now back in Scotland, we’d expect them to win again.
Victory came at a cost for Pivac in round one. George North, Tomos Williams, Johnny Williams, Hallam Amos and Dan Lydiate will all be unavailable and that is a huge setback for a team trying to build some momentum.
Although North’s injury will take the headlines, the absence of Tomos Williams and centre Johnny Williams will be the biggest blow, and that just plays into the hosts’ hands even more.
We’re not expecting an absolute hammering though. All but two of the Scots’ 23 victories over tier one nations when excluding Argentina, Italy and Japan have come by fewer than 13 points since 2003.
By contrast, five of Wales seven defeats under current management have come by 1-12 points, and that margin of victory looks a solid bet at the prices.