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There were two very contrasting round one results for these teams. France ran out 50-10 victors in Rome to put them as favourites for the title at the head the table, while Ireland succumbed to defeat in Cardiff.
Ill-discipline from Peter O’Mahony cost Andy Farrell’s men dearly, having to play over an hour with 14-men and that might have some serious consequences on their performances over the rest of the competition.
It’s a well-known fact how important building momentum is in the Six Nations and Les Bleus couldn’t have done a much more in their opening round.
Fabien Galthie has led his charges to eight victories from their 10 matches, as those two anomalies came when receiving a first half red card against Scotland 11 months ago, and the other a draw in normal time with England in the Autumn Nations Cup final when fielding a heavily rotated outfit.
It’s therefore no surprise to see them as strong favourites to win this next encounter, but we wouldn’t expect this to be a forgone conclusion.
France 1-12 Point Winning Margin
The Irish have lost just two of their 10 matches with the French since 2012, as the average points margin between the two has been just shy of four points in Ireland’s favour.
Indeed, the hosts don’t quite look the team they once were under Joe Schmidt, but the only sides to have beaten them prior to this tournament under Farrell have been England and France themselves.
Each of those three defeats came by fewer than 13 points, while only England in 2019 have overcome this Ireland side at Aviva Stadium from their 21 outings since the beginning of 2017.
That home record obviously plays less of a role due to Covid-19 not allowing fans to the stadiums. Nonetheless, they’ve still won each of their matches over Italy, Wales, Georgia and Scotland by at least 13 points without crowds.
However, this will be by far the biggest game they’ve had at this stadium since losing to England 32-20 two years ago.
The last time these sides met came in October, France came out on top 35-27 at Stade de France. Both teams had to go for it in order to lift the Six Nations title, and although we wouldn’t expect this to be as high scoring as the 62 points scored that day, we’d still have to be onside with another close French victory.
France 1-12 Point Winning Margin At 6/4
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