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Arsenal Set To Win 2022/23 Title Race

Historical data from Genting Casino shows that Arsenal are on-course for their first Premier League title for 19 years. The Gunners have a five-point lead over Manchester City, and the data shows that 87.5% of teams with a lead or five points or over after 28 games have gone on to win the league.

Arsenal have impressed majorly this season, playing an attacking, pulsating style of football and achieving results week after week. Players like Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, and Gabriel Martinelli have propelled Mikel Arteta’s men to the top of the table, and a first top-flight title since 2003/04 beckons.


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Title Favourites

Arsenal have the advantage of not playing in the Champions League this season, however the Gunners’ remaining league fixtures involve trips to Liverpool, Newcastle, and Manchester City themselves. 

Guardiola’s side have the easier on-paper fixtures, but they must play challenging home and away games in the Champions League and perhaps rest their key players in league action. 

The Gunners are 15 points better-off after 28 games this season than last season and have become title-favourites seemingly overnight. The majority of the footballing public would’ve bet that City, Chelsea, and Liverpool would be competing for the league, yet the two latter clubs have endured poor seasons and are nowhere near the title picture. 

History On Arsenal’s Side

There have been 16 past occasions where the league-leader has had an advantage of 5 points or more after playing 28 games and only twice, Man United in 97/98 and Arsenal in 2002/03, have those teams not gone on to lift the Premier League trophy at the end of the season.

The Gunners were fittingly involved in both of those occasions, overtaking Manchester United in stunning fashion in the 1997/98 season before losing a sizable lead at the top of the table in 2002/03. 

Exactly 20 years have passed since that season, and Arsenal would win the league the next year in 2003/04, but little did anyone know that they’d be yet to win it again.

There have been near-misses along the way, such as the 2007/08 season or the 2015/16 season, but the North London club failed to get over the line on both occasions. 



Don’t Write Off City

It is, of course, too early to write-off Manchester City, who have won three out of the last four Premier League titles, but history is certainly on Arsenal’s side. Of all the teams to have attained 69 or more points after 28 games, only once (Liverpool in 2018/19) did it not result in a title win. 

The 2018/19 Liverpool side were overtaken by Manchester City, who ended up finishing just a point ahead of Liverpool, much like they did last season. Guardiola’s men know how to prepare for the long-haul, and we should all expect this title race to go down to the wire.

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V: 1.35.0 All rights reserved. August 2021
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