We offer analysis and odds on some of this weekend’s NCAA Division 1 games, including Clemson’s ACC opener against Georgia Tech. We ponder the big questions, such as whether West Virginia can overcome a lofty handicap when they entertain Kansas State, and if TCU can keep Texas QB Sam Ehlinger from running them ragged as the Horned Froga bid for a fifth straight win over the Longhorns.
WASHINGTON STATE @ USC
USC’s inconsistent offensive line play has seen them lose to both Stanford and Texas. The latter 37-14 defeat was painful, since they allowed the Longhorns to score 34 unanswered points.
The defense allowed Texas to convert 25 first downs in the loss and the Trojans are averaging just 20 points per game.
The Washington State Cougars improved to 3-0 after easily defeating FCS Eastern Washington Eagles 59-24 last week and while they have faced modest opposition, they should be able to put up a few points in this Pac-12 opener with former East Carolina QB Gardner Minshew having a firm grasp of Mike Leach’s passing attack.
The Trojans are 4/9 Moneyline favourites, though some will feel the Cougars are worth a look in receipt of 4.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap. The total points line is set at 51.5 and given USC’s offensive issues, not helped by the introduction of first-year freshman JT Daniels at QB, some will think that the unders at 8/13 might be the answer
BOSTON COLLEGE @ PURDUE
Boston College sits at 3-0 on the season, courtesy of beating Massachusetts, Holy Cross and Wake Forest. They are now ranked No23 and it is the first time they have been ranked in the top 25 since 2008. The Eagles have scored 40 points or more in each game – another historic first for the university.
It helps that they have returned all five offensive line starters from last season and Purdue’s young defensive front may be in for a long afternoon. With the line protecting QB Anthony Brown and opening up running lanes for AJ Dillon (averaging 168 yards per game) on a consistent basis, keeping that offense off the field is going to be key for Purdue. They need to run the ball and hope that Nat King Cole’s grandson, defensive end Wyatt Ray, is not allowed to maraud in their backfield, having gained four sacks against Wake Forest.
Purdue is tough environment to play in and it must not be forgotten that the Boilermakers have lost three games by eight points. They have talent, but are considered 2/1 shots on the Genting Casino Moneyline and are 10/11 in receipt of 6.5 points on the handicap.
We expect quite a few points and the line is set at 64.5.
GEORGIA @ MISSOURI
No2-ranked Georgia are 2/15 Genting Casino Moneyline favourites over Missouri but this game has some thinking about upset potential. The Tigers, who are priced at 15/4, finished with a 7-6 record last season after losing to Texas in the Texas Bowl. Prior to that, they had gone on a six-game winning streak to close the regular season.
The Bulldogs are 3-0 and have allowed just eight points per game this season, but the pass rush has only generated one sack, so it will be interesting if they can pressure a high-powered attack, which could set the Dawgs on their heels.
Missouri, similarly 3-0, is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Drew Lock, who has led his team to score at least 40 points per game. This high-powered offense has the ability to do a lot of damage and Missouri is in receipt of 14.5 points on the Genting Casino handicap at 3/4.
NOTRE DAME @ WAKE FOREST
Notre Dame is ranked No8 and Wake Forest is 0-7 against top-10 opponents in the Dave Clawson era. So the trends would say that the 3-0 Fighting Irish are there to be backed at 3/10 on the Genting Casino Moneyline, particularly since the visitors have never lost to the (2-1) Demon Deacons in four previous meetings.
The Irish have yet to give up more than 17 points and it will be interesting to see if that will be the case again against an up-tempt Wake Forest attack, who provide little time for defensive adjustments.
Wake Forest lost to Boston College last week and this test looks a much stiffer one, so there may be some who feel the value lies with the visitors covering a 7.5-point Genting Casino handicap at odds of 10/11.
NEBRASKA @ MICHIGAN
No 21-ranked Michigan Wolverines take on the 0-2 Nebraska Cornhuskers as 18.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourites. That is a big number, in part because the Nebraska secondary looks a work in progress. They allowed 351 yards to Colorado and allowed Troy to complete 66 per cent of its throws.
Nebraska could be boosted by freshman QB Adrian Martinez, who should be a good fit for an offense that mixes zone-reads, run-pass options and plenty of spread formations. That is all very well when you have the offensive line to execute such a sophisticated and diverse scheme, but the Huskers’ are limited in that department.
Michigan’s front is going to be a severe test for Scott Frost’s offense and few would bet against a Don Brown defense when it lines up against a freshman passer.
KANSAS STATE @ WEST VIRGINIA
Injuries to the Kansas State defense means that this could get ugly quickly against the No12-ranked Mountaineers, who boast one of the most talented and balanced attacks in the country. Led by QB Will Grier and playmakers Gary Jennings and David Sills at receiver, and running back Leddlie Brown, West Virginia is averaging 586 yards per game and 46 points per game.
The outcome should not be whether the Wildcats can deliver the 17/4 odds on the Moneylne, but whether they can keep within the 16.5-point Genting Casino handicap. Many will think the hosts can cover at odds of 10/11 – it just depends on whether they take their foot of the gas or not in Morgantown.
CLEMSON @ GEORGIA TECH
The No3-ranked Clemson Tigers open conference play bidding for a fourth straight ACC title. 3-0 Clemson is a 16.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourite to beat a team that has lost its last two to USF and Pittsburgh.
Baffling play-calling and a weak offensive line has hurt the Yellow Jackets this season. Injuries along the line means Clemson’s front four should have their way with Georgia Tech, who also have a few undersized players on the defensive line for the 3-4 scheme they employ.
Tech has struggled to get pressure on opposing QBs this season without blitzing and whether it is Trevor Lawrence or Kelly Bryant at the helm, the Clemson QB will have plenty of time to pick his spots.
Clemson looks hugely dominant on paper – their 1/9 Genting Casino Moneyline odds reflect that – and many feel that the only way Tech can beat the spread is if Clemson gets a large lead early on and then eases off.
TCU @ TEXAS
Texas Christian University has won the last four contests by 152-33 and they are 8/15 on the Genting Casino Moneyline to extend that streak. TCU failed to upset Ohio State last week, slipping to a 40-28 defeat, but the Longhorns are riding high following their win over USC.
The hosts are 2.5-point Genting Casino handicap favourites at odds of 21/10, yet if TCU can minimize the impact that young Texas QB Sam Ehlinger can produce with his feet, many feel the Horned Frogs have the edge.
Ehlinger is more of a running back playing quarterback and he has won a lot of games with his fleet-footedness, running draw plays and stretches. He is the key if Texas are to win back-to-back games.
TCU’s ground game was highly effective against Ohio State, pounding out almost six yards per carry and junior Darius Anderson tore up the Buckeyes for 154 yards on 12 carries.
Some are not certain whether Texas is back. The offensive line has been much better, but let’s see how they deal with Ben Banogu and company before making a definitive decision. The Horned Frogs are 4/6 conceding 2.5 points.
Those seeking College Football picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
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