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Another tight encounter for Australia last time out saw them cover the handicap with ease as we predicted, and now they face a familiar foe in Wales who they’ve had numerous battles with in recent years, particularly in the World Cup as they will again next year. After a narrow victory against Scotland that could have ended up in a defeat if not for the wayward boot of Blair Kinghorn, the Wallabies have endured three agonising defeats to France (one point), Italy (one point) and Ireland (three points), and they’ll need to figure out a way to go that one step further in time for the World Cup.
Wales succumbed to arguably their worst defeat in their long history at the weekend as Georgia kicked a late penalty to take the spoils 13-12. The defeat has brought questions over Wayne Pivac’s capabilities and whether or not he’s the right person to take Wales forward, and a defeat here against a below par Wallabies side would really put him under pressure. The Red Dragons have now lost seven of their last nine outings, with their wins coming narrowly over South Africa, in a series they ultimately lost 2-1, and Argentina just a couple of weeks ago.
Australia +3.5 Handicap
Australia are on the exact same run of losing seven of their last nine, and while they’ve lost convincingly on a few occasions, namely against Argentina and New Zealand a few months ago, they’ve managed to keep many games tight, and we’d expect the same here.
Dave Rennie has opted to experiment slightly with his squad this time out, with Jake Gordon and Ben Donaldson in the half back partnership, while Reece Hodge comes in at 12. Wayne Pivac has made six changes to his team as well, with Joe Hawkins the standout change on debut in midfield.
Both teams will be desperate to end the year on a high, and there’s nothing really to split them. The tide swings in Wales’ favour with their home advantage, though that hasn’t exactly proven pivotal so far this tour. They have also won the last three matches against the Wallabies, though all three victories have come within a four point margin, so getting the visitors on the 3.5 handicap looks the way to go.
AUSTRALIA +3.5 HANDICAP
Wales v Australia Teams
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