13 May 2022
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Leinster are gunning for their fifth European title, though that’s a tough ask against the defending champions. Toulouse came through an extremely dramatic semi-final clash with Munster in the last round, with their 24-24 stalemate being decided by penalty kicks.
The hosts go in as favourites and it’s easy to see why, especially with this being played at the Aviva Stadium. The Irish side are yet to lose a home outing in 2022, while they’ve now won 15 of their last 16 games on home soil.
They’ve been a far more consistent team this season than their visitors, who haven’t put on the best performances this season, though seem to be surging into a bit of form just at the right time, so they’re certainly not to be slept on having beaten Rochelle at home just the week before the quarters.
Leinster -10 Handicap
The handicap line has the hosts as big favourites with a 10-point advantage, though they’ve managed to cover that line in each of their last two meetings against the French giants, while they’ve also managed to cover that line in 20 of 21 home outings since that most recent victory over Toulouse.
What’s more, the visitors have a shocking recent away record, going W1-D1-L7 from their last nine outings on the road, and while only one of those nine outings saw them lose by more than that 10 point line, none of those sides hold a candle to the quality of Leinster, and we’d expect a comprehensive home win here in the circumstances.
Both sides are full strength with no injuries worthy of note, and with a packed Aviva Stadium carrying this home side on, it would be a real surprise not to see them in the final.
LEINSTER -10 HANDICAP
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