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With no more Covid-19 cases being reported in the Wasps camp, we’re set for a repeat of the 2016/17 when Exeter lifted the title in extra-time for the very first time.
Unfortunately, the Coventry based club have had their preparations slightly hampered, losing a few days of training due to the current outbreak within their squad, but fortunately, it doesn’t seem to have affected them too badly.
The Chiefs come into their fifth straight Premiership final having lifted the European Champions Cup last weekend, after downing Racing 92 by just four points.
They found themselves in a similar situation in that game at Ashton Gate, as the French outfit also had their preparations ruined by an outbreak of Covid, although they still deserve all the plaudits coming their way for what Rob Baxter has accomplished.
Indeed, their first Domestic/European double would be the icing on the cake and it’s difficult to see how Wasps are going to stop them from achieving that.
Exeter 1-12 Point Winning Margin
Lee Blackett’s men did beat the men from Devon by a convincing 41-point deficit earlier this month, but we wouldn’t look into that too much with Exeter putting out a ‘B’ team that day, having already secured a home playoff spot.
Indeed, rewind to last November when they faced against one another at Sandy Park with full strength teams, and Baxter’s men prevailed by a comfortable 35-point margin, although Blackett wasn’t in charge back then.
These finals are normally decided by fine margins, as a maximum of 12 points has separated the sides in nine of the 11 finals dating back to the 2008/09 campaign, with only a dominate Saracens outfit buckling that trend in the six finals since 2013/14.
Moreover, since returning from the enforced Covid break, Exeter have only won by more than 12 points in five of their 13 outings, as two of the times they did, they scored exactly 13 points against both a dismal Leicester and Gloucester side, while another two came against Worcester and Northampton, all of which finished in the bottom half of the table.
Of course, they hammered Bath in the semis, but that came in their own backyard and on neutral turf we would not expect them to run riot.
Furthermore, the Coventry outfit have had a blistering end to the season with seven straight victories, beating all of Bath, Saracens, Bristol (twice), Leicester, Harlequins and Exeter themselves over that period.
However, we just can’t see them overturning the European champions, and the best bet looks to be in backing Baxter’s men to win the game in 80 minutes by fewer than 13 points.
Exeter 1-12 Point Winning Margin At 6/4
EXETER V WASPS ODDS AVAILABLE HERE
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 22/10/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
