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Road To The Super Bowl
Tom Brady has successful guided the Buccaneers to their first Super Bowl since 2002, while on the personal front, the former Patriots QB will be competing in his 10th Super Bowl this weekend.
Brady led his side to a respectable 11-5 regular season, though three straight playoff road wins should be lauded for the first season at his new franchise.
The Bucs will make history this weekend as the first franchise to compete in a Super Bowl at their own stadium, and that will be a big boost for them in a game that they go into as underdogs.
The Chiefs finished the regular season 14-2, and even their defeat to the Chargers in the final week of the season came as they rested their star players.
They survived a scare in their first playoff game of the season against the Browns when Patrick Mahomes had to leave the field, though there’s little doubt he’ll be ok for this clash and quite frankly, there’s very little any side can do to stop the Chiefs when their QB is singing.
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Kansas City Chiefs -3
The only stat that throws caution to the wind over this side is the face that from the beginning of November, none of their final eight regular season games saw them win by more than six points.
However, while some of those games were as close as the scoreline suggests, some were flattering to their opponents, not least their 27-24 victory over the Bucs just over two months ago.
The Chiefs ran out a 17-0 lead after the first quarter and spent the rest of the match keeping the Bucs at bay rather than going gung-ho, and if it weren’t for two late scores when the game was effectively already won, that would have been a rollover and despite the spread this time out, that’s exactly what we’d expect here.
If it weren’t for Brady, we’d likely not even be discussing the Bucs chances in this game, and while their QB has been instrumental in their run here, fortune has also played its part with the utmost respect.
In their last two playoff matches, The Packers capitulated in the Championship game and the Saints just couldn’t keep hold of the ball in the Divisional round.
That’s not to say this side doesn’t have the skill set required to get here, though those two sides are the only two that they’ve managed to beat that had a winning record this campaign, and we just can’t see the Chiefs making the same mistakes. Their record speaks for itself and if the last meeting is anything to go off, the three-point spread should be covered with ease.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 At 10/11
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Brady And Mahomes – Overs Or Unders?
This certainly is a game for the ages as the greatest QB of all time goes up against the biggest talent of the next generation in Patrick Mahomes, who will be hoping this game serves as a passing of the torch if he leads this Chiefs side to the first back-to-back Super Bowl victories since the Patriots in 2005.
What comes with a great Quarterback is a great passing offence, so it’s no surprise to see both sides rank in the top four in the NFL for passing yards and touchdowns this season. As far as game plans go, there is absolutely no doubt that the Chiefs are going pass whenever they can.
Not only do they have the best passer in the league as their QB, but the Bucs have the best Rush defence, ranking first in both yards per carry (3.6) and touchdowns (10).
We’d therefore expect Mahomes to have at least 40 throws this match. He’s averaged 8.1 yards per attempt this season and with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as his two main receiving options, we’d expect Mahomes to hit the overs this game against a Bucs defence that rank 21st in passing yards allowed this season.
While Brady will want the ball in his hands if it gets to crunch time, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs were to run the ball a lot here.
They’ll want to slow the game down and keep the ball away from Mahomes as much as they can, and with the Chiefs ranking 21st in rushing yards allowed this season there’s every suggestion that that could be an effective play.
It’s on that basis that we’d expect Brady to go ‘Unders’ on this occasion, though in the Red Zone we’d be surprised if he gave up control.
Patrick Mahomes Over 325.5 Passing Yards At 5/6
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