12 Nov 2019
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Portugal currently sit in second place in Group B on 11 points after their opening six matches. With Serbia trailing them by just one point, they’ll know this is a must win game as there are just two fixtures to go.
However, should they slip up the UEFA Nations League winners will get another roll of the dice in the play-offs following their victory in that tournament back in June.
Meanwhile, Lithuania have been struggling yet again in the qualifiers, with their solitary point coming against second-from-bottom Luxembourg, as they’ve lost each of their other five outings in this group.
There’s nothing to suggest that’s going to improve against the sixth-best team in the world according to FIFA’s ranking system.
Fernando Santos’s men have gone an impressive W12-D6-L2 from 20 competitive matches since the end of the Confederations Cup back in June/July 2017.
However, his side have taken their time to get going in those fixtures as although they’ve been leading at the break in 10 of them, each of those were by one goal margins, with seven being exactly 1-0, despite facing the likes of the Faroe Islands, Andorra, Lithuania and Luxembourg over this spell.
Moreover, although it was outside of Portugal, they were defeated by league leaders Ukraine in their last fixture and it may take some time for them to gel again as they search for the right balance within their team.
Lithuania +2 First Half Handicap
By contrast, the visitors have won just once in 23 competitive fixtures since the beginning of the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, losing 18 of them.
However, only six of those saw them down by more than a single goal at half time, including two of their past nine on the road.
In fact, taking a closer look at those recent trips we can see they went down exactly 1-0 at the break to Gareth Southgate’s England side, Slovenia, Romania and Ukraine only last month, while they kept the scores level after 45 minutes when visiting Serbia.
Lithuania +2 First Half Handicap
Portugal hold a pretty remarkable record on home turf, losing just twice in 46 competitive matches in the aftermath of their Euro 2004 final defeat, winning by more than one goal at half time in just 12.
They kept a clean sheet in 28 of those games, but seeing as the win to nil is at such a short price for this encounter, we’d rather avoid that. However, of the last 38 of these fixtures, they only led by more than a solitary strike at the break on six occasions, and it’s the half-time handicap that interests us more than any full-time handicap at the prices.
Indeed, Portugal have only won by a minimum of four goals after 90 minutes in four of their last 37 on home turf in competitive matches, but there’s always a chance Cristiano Ronaldo and company could run riot during the second period against weak opponents as the space opens up.
Lithuania +2 First Half Handicap At 3/4
0.5 Pts: Half Time Score – Portugal 1-0 At 9/4
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