23 Dec 2020
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St James’ Park is a notoriously difficult place to come for Premier League sides, as even Liverpool have gone W3-D2-L4 here over the last nine seasons, though the lack of fans is always going to play into the visitors’ hands, as one of those Liverpool victories came after project restart in an empty stadium, so we’d be inclined to take that record with a pinch of salt.
Liverpool succumbed to a late Semi Ajayi goal as they dropped their first home points of the season at the weekend, and if this were to be played at Anfield we’d expect an immediate bounce back and a convincing win, though the Reds haven’t been anywhere near their best on the road this season.
Indeed, despite having the best home record, they’d sit all the way down in ninth in a table based solely on away results with a W2-D4-L1 record.
Newcastle haven’t been exceptional though recently, and in fact have really struggled against the better sides in the league.
Indeed, 14 of their 18 points this season have been picked up against sides placed 10th or below, with a 2-1 win against Everton their only victory against a side outside that bracket, while 70% of their home points have come against sides in the bottom four, so they’ll certainly be up against it here.
The things going in their favour though are Liverpool’s away record and the fact that Jurgen Klopp will likely opt to rotate his squad here.
The likes of Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah may be switched out having each played a full match on Sunday and that would ultimately hinder their proficiency in front of goal, and on that basis, it looks like the value bet would be to get the hosts onside with a handicap.
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Newcastle +1.75 Asian Handicap
Liverpool have only covered the -1 handicap twice on the road this year, with one coming against a 10-man Chelsea side back in their first away game of the year.
The Magpies have covered a +1 handicap on eight occasions already this season including in each of their last two home games, while they’ve also managed to do so in five of the last six head-to-heads here with the exception coming last season and only due to Sadio Mane’s late third for the visitors.
Getting the three points and saving his players are the most important things for Jurgen Klopp at this time, so we’d expect his side to take their foot off the gas slightly if they were to take a lead, and therefore the +1.75 Asian Handicap looks to offer the best value for money.
Newcastle +1.75 Asian Handicap At 41/50
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